Unforeseen Contingencies

Economics is a science.  If you begin with fundamental economic principles, you can derive implications - laws - that are true.  You can build models of the economy with them, and they will work.  They'll tell you what is going on and they'll let you make good conditional predictions, that is, if this then that.  And you'll be right.

On the other hand, if you build models on an arbitrary basis, your models will not be any good, except by luck.  You'll ignore fundamental principles, and in effect be denying universal laws... an approach formalized in historicism.  And you'll be wrong, except by accident.

With this in mind, and recalling the previous post, WaPo provides an excellent (i.e. terrible) example of confusion in economics.

“There remains a significant gap between consumers’ demand and businesses’ ability to supply it,” said Adam Ozimek, chief economist at the Economic Innovation Group. “People’s desire to consume more goods than businesses can produce is leading to a rise in prices, and consumers are going to feel that in their pocketbooks.”

Oh, those darned consumer desires!  If only they didn't want so much!  

Look, this is stupid.  People always desire to consume more.  Blaming inflation on consumer desires is ridiculous.  People always desire more, but that doesn't mean inflation.  Instead, consider this: The Fed greatly increased the money supply and the federal government handed out this additional money as Covid payments, or spent it itself.  Either way, nothing increased the supply of goods, so more money bid up up the prices of the goods.  But in addition, the federal government has been shrinking the supply of goods, first with Wuflu lockdowns, and then with increased regulation (raising costs of producing goods) and by shutting down energy production.  Ozimek has no conception of causality; he simply notes disequilibrium and arbitrarily assigns the problem to unreasonable consumers.  

Hey Ozimek, the government dumped extra fiat money in the economy - so when people spend it, prices go up!  MV = PY.  Did you sleep through Principles of Macro?  If you increase the stock of money faster than the growth rate of goods and services, as the government has done, then prices will rise.

He compounds his foolishness by suggesting that when consumers demand more, suddenly they will "feel that in their pocketbooks."  He's trying to blame an exogenous increase in consumption spending for inflation.  But if there were an exogenous increase in demand (there isn't) this would mean increased scarcity, not inflation.  An increase in demand means an increase in willingness to pay.  People who are suddenly decide they are willing to pay higher prices aren't shocked by higher prices, they initiated them.  It appears he slept through Principles of Micro as well.

Lesson: Modeling can done on an ad hoc basis, from arbitrary starting points.  If this, then that doesn't require correct premises, but logical conclusions from false premises won't match reality.  If you start from false premises, you can build an impressive house of cards.  You can even apply some non-robust tests that fail to falsify it, and declare it "science," but it is nonsense and leads to false conclusions.

Don't do this!

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 21:49 0 comments

Melina Wisecup of NTD TV interviewed me yesterday for a segment that aired today.  Are we headed for an economic recession?  Joe Biden says no.  I think it's a done deal.  

Mr. Brandon, er, Biden, claims the U.S. has simply inherited the rest of the world's problems but has a strong economy.  I deny this,it's nonsense.  The U.S. suffers from high inflation caused by bad monetary policy, the federal government is working to shut down American energy production and raise energy prices, and the supply chain breakdowns and low labor force participation caused by the terrible Covid policies, and the rapid increase in regulation and taxes -- together these practically guarantee an economic debacle.  Those are all Made in America problems, courtesy of our federal government.  Add the disruptions from abroad, especially China's ongoing Wuflu ongoing lockdowns and Russia's war on Ukraine, and we're in for a real train wreck.

But why read this summary when you can watch us go toe-to-toe... well, sort of...  (Note to readers: notice that unlike Mr. Biden, I don't have a wired earpiece with someone telling me what to say.  Anything I say, I actually believe.)

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 20:30 0 comments