Friday, October 30, 2020
Election Predictions: Trump Wins... America Wins!
The 2020 election is upon us. I would say "almost upon us," except that voting began in September, I believe. Julie and I have already voted, absentee in person. This is an insane way to conduct an election. There should be one day (1) and voting should be done in person. One should have to identify oneself as a legal and properly registered voter. The nonsense of mail-out-mail-back ballots, no voter ID, same-day registration, DMV registration, and the rest come from people who do not give a tinker's dam about principles and legitimacy.
The nonsense is purely partisan. There are two kinds of people who are inclined to vote for the demagogic left. The first is the progressive intelligentsia, which hopes to direct society from the top down. The second: the irresponsibles. The less self-responsible one is, the more likely one will support an ideology that denies individual self-responsibility, blames others for problems, and looks to others for solutions, i.e. the ideology of leftism.
The problem for the leftist intelligentsia is that the less responsible one is, the less reliable one is. Hence an important part of the Democrat voter base might not actually vote. This partly explains why Democrats endorse everything they can think of to reduce the cost of voting: mail-out-mail-back ballots, no voter ID, same-day registration, DMV registration, six week voting periods, 24/7 drive-in voting stations (apparently there is such a thing), illegal alien voting (in some California local elections), and proposals for voting by sixteen year olds. They don't actually believe in voting as a method of learning what responsible, thoughtful people think government should be or do -- they just see it as process to be manipulated to gain power, and if the results of a vote don't give them power, they reject it. That's why Hilliary Clinton, John Podesta, and related owlhoots have insisted that no matter how the vote goes, Joe Biden should not concede That's why, after losing the Brexit vote, the globalist Euroweenies denied its legitimacy, condemned the electorate, and did everything they could to ignore it. (BTW, the rest of the explanation why the leftist intelligentsia wants lower standards and easier voting is that it makes it easier for them to cheat.
With all of this in mind, let's first look at Unforeseen Contingencies' predictions for the upcoming election.
1. There will be substantial attacks, riots, and covid shutdowns directed against polling places that tend to be strongly Republican on Election Day. I'm 50% certain.
2. Trump wins. He takes the Electoral College. 80% certain. The polls might say otherwise, but the polls are wrong.
3. This will be apparent within 24 hours of the closing of the polls. 90% certain.
4. Biden and the Democrat Party will sue in various jurisdictions to change voting outcome. 100% certain.
5. There'll be massive riots in major cities and also in DC. (Washington DC is not a major city.) 100% certain.
6. Republicans will keep the Senate. 60% certain.
7. Republicans will retake the House, 55% certain.
While I'm at it, let's do a preliminary look at the Unforeseen Contingencies Predictions for 2020. Predictions 1, 2 , and 6 (Trump acquitted, Biden nominated, multiple attacks on Republican headquarters and supporters) we've hit home runs. Number 7 (no war with Iran)seems very likely to be correct. Number 8 (worst winter ever) failed, and 9 (I complete four ultras, including a 100 miler) seems doomed to fail, since four of my planned ultras were cancelled in honor of the Wuhan flu. (I guess that's why the canceled them.) The others are still in running and I stick by them, especially the wild card.
On Election Night I'm planning on attending a local anti-lockdown assembly (it will actually be a genuinely peaceful assembly, unlike a Black Lies Matter riot). And later I will be interviewed on our college radio station. If there's a Soundcloud file, I'll post.
In the meantime, dear reader(s), stay well. Write if you can. And stay positive. Liberty will win.
