Sunday, July 05, 2015

Memo to the EU

To: European Union
From: Unforeseen Contingencies
Re: Greece

EU, the Greeks have overwhelmingly rejected your offer of further funding.  Your request that in return for other peoples' money they cut defense spending, reduce government bureaucracy, stop giving tax breaks in tourist areas, cut pension bonuses, and start working were too much for them (their absurdist Finance Minister deemed these "terrorism.")

The Greeks have spoken.  Stop discussing bailouts with them.  Let them go their own way, on their own.  They will suffer like crazy, and go through economic hell, but it will be good for them.  As this Greek entrepreneur correctly points out, they can make theory country work if they stop whining, get off their crybaby Greek arses, and start producing at least as much as they consume.

No further funding.  Cut them off.  In the long run, it will be good for them.

Note: I regret I can't figure out how to post the video interview with entrepreneur Nektaria Kakousi.  everyone should hear her insightful analysis.  Click the link.  It's short and beautiful as well.

Thursday, July 02, 2015

Coming Soon! The Second American Revolution

Happy 4th of July, American Independence Day! My traditional Unforeseen Contingencies Independence Day post is a bit early this year, because on July 4 I expect to be high in the Spanish Peaks of Montana. I will do my usual observance of my favorite holiday, but will be gridless and netless, by design.

This is a piece for libertarians, for classical liberals. If you are not such, you’ll likely have no idea what I am talking about. If when I mention “rights” you imagine “health care paid for by someone else” or “the ‘right’ not to hear things that offend” you will be lost. Similarly, pseudo-libertarians, such as Rothbardian anarcho-capitalists, who imagine that the U.S. and the USSR are morally identical, will be nonplussed. Too bad.

Humans’ greatest political achievement is the United States of America. This is the only country founded on the principles of individual liberty. There’s no more important or valuable political (i.e. social) principle. Individuals who respect each other’s liberty, each other’s rights, can live in complete harmony together. They need not agree on religion, personal ethics, or anything else – but if each agree to respect each other’s right to live as he pleases, they will have a peaceful and free society, and economics shows they’ll have a prosperous one as well. They need only foreswear initiating force, i.e. using coercion to try to shape each other’s personal choices. America was founded precisely on these principles, and it has been remarkably successful. No other country can claim this. No other political project can claim this.

These days utopians of various stripes attack America and the idea of America, because America has not been perfectly successful. For example, America (or part of it) had slavery for its first 75 or so years. And there are plenty of other rights violations that have occurred in America, so from a utopian’s standpoint, America falls short and must be destroyed. Pseudo-libertarians (e.g. 99.9% of anarcho-capitalists) hate America. So does the radical left. So do foreign authoritarian regimes (albeit on somewhat different grounds, since they tend not to be utopian but simply ruthless power seekers). Furthermore, since America falls short of utopia, then, in utopians’ logic, American ideals are worthless. Hence American ideals, the real American ideals formalized in the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution, are under terrible assault by the haters of America. All of the Bill of Rights is considered obsolete in various influential circles (e.g. academia, the MSM, government… the political class). I’ve made that case previously with respect to the First, Second, Fifth, Ninth, and Tenth Amendments, and will continue to do so. But anyone who looks at current events in this country understands this already. The haters of America are haters of liberty, and – therefore – of humanity. I include the pseudo-libertarians among them; they are more wedded to abolition of the state than to liberty. (That’s a case I can make later, if anyone cares to hear it.)

The haters of America seem to have the upper hand these days. The President is busily working to forge a treaty that will allow the apocalyptic-minded mullahs of Iran to build nuclear weapons (while pretending to do the opposite), sabotaging American allies (most notably Israel), while at home legislating by executive fiat to institute socialized medicine, gun control, and other tyrannies. The left is campaigning, with some success, to shut down free speech and expression and the most innocent action (try buying a “Dukes of Hazzard” matchbox car and you’ll be branded “racist.”) Churches and synagogues that adhere to their Scriptures are about to be attacked in the courts for refusing to kowtow to the Alice-in-Wonderland ramblings that Justice Kennedy offered in lieu of legal logic in Obergefell. And Russia and China wage cyber war on the U.S. Yes, America and American ideals are under assault from enemies within and without. They are on the offensive. They seem to be winning. So all is lost, America is finished, liberty is obsolete, and we should surrender, right?

Hahahahaha! NO! Quite to the contrary, America, and American ideals, are not obsolete, but rather are universal and will triumph. The left, along with America’s external enemies, will end up on the garbage pile of history, where they belong. Here’s why:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness

This is the most profound and important political principle ever discovered. (Emphasis on "discovered" because this is not "socially constructed" and hence arbitrary.)  Now that men have understood this, there’s no putting the genie back in the bottle, getting the cat back in the bag, or whatever metaphor you prefer. Marxists, including today’s PC cultural Marxists, hope to return to the days of governance by elites. Mercantilists (“crony-capitalists” for all of you who haven’t yet taken my History of Economic Thought courses) hope for the same (but have a different set of elites in mind). But they all are in defiance of some of the most powerful principles humans have ever discovered, and they will lose. All that is necessary is that they be confronted with people who understand and are willing to fight for reason, rights, and liberty.

In these dark times – and they are very dark – I remain very optimistic. A second American Revolution is coming! We – I speak to those readers who are genuinely interested in liberty – have the ideas and the tools we need to defeat the enemies of liberty and build a free and prosperous world. And because of unforeseen contingencies – the occurrence of things, events, and opportunities that no one ever imagined (I believe our American Forefathers called this “Providence,”) I am quite sure that ultimately our cause will win.

But whether it will win in our time is a very different question. The thirst for individual liberty is a universal value – one must abuse and corrupt a person terribly to beat it out of him, and once he understands this value any thoughtful and empathetic person desires it for others as well. But whether this value triumphs in our lifetimes depends on what we do. History has placed on each of us a responsibility, a burden, to promote the American ideals. The world is in desperate need of a second American Revolution, an intellectual, moral, and spiritual revolution that insists on Reason, Rights, and Liberty as absolutes. It’s our job to conduct this revolution.

The great liberal Thomas Jefferson observed that by 1776 the real American Revolution – the revolution in men’s minds and hearts – had already occurred. It’s now 239 years later, and too many hearts and minds are muddled. It’s our job to re-awaken them to the great truths of classical liberalism. Let’s get on with it.

Happy American Independence Day!


Friday, June 26, 2015

Running!

Let's take a break from our regular fare and focus on another subject dear to "our" hearts at Unforeseen Contingencies... running!

I've been training fairly hard, working to get back into shape for ultras (next up, the Elkhorn 50K on August 1).  Last year I started a new approach to training -- I mostly train for 5K races (a distance I had not done since 2006) and added my weekly long runs on top of that.  My idea is that this doesn't affect my total weekly distance, but does change the intensity of some of the running -- and my steady diet of ultras-only plus injuries had reduced my speed, such as it was, to less than a snail's pace.  Because of numerous interruptions to my training last year I wasn't able to test this training regimen, but this year I'm on track.  I doubt this will make me much faster at ultra distances, but I certainly think I am in better shape and am getting my speed back for short runs.

All of this is an introduction to the real point of my post.  On 18 July I will be running the 1st annual "Running Lungs" 5K in Bozeman Montana, a fundraiser for cancer research.  In 2008 a friend of mine, Linda Wortman, was diagnosed with lung cancer.  It's worth noting that Linda had never smoked.  Apparently the cancer was rather fast developing, and Linda had to have half a lung removed.  Linda survived.

No scratch that, Linda thrived.  She took up up running (she was over 60 at that point, and while active and fit was a non-runner) and has subsequently run a 5K in every state.  She's now working towards completing a 10K on each continent, and has three so far (North America, South America, and Europe).  But also, Linda has established the Wortman Lung Cancer Foundation and is organizing and directing the Running Lungs 10K, 5K, 2K, and Virtual Run.  I'm doing the 5K (or maybe 10K if I feel the urge) and I invite all Unforeseen Contingencies readers to join me.

If you are or will be in Bozeman and run, I will buy you post-race beer, iced tea, or whatever else suits you.  Plus, you are welcome to camp out at my place.  Sign up!  But suppose you aren't in Bozeman...

Well, sign up for the Virtual RunJoin us anywhere on July 18 and run or walk your own course.  If you do this, I will again buy the beer etc. next time we meet -- or, if meeting is out of the question (a number of my readers are well outside North America) then I'll find a way to buy your drinks from a distance.  Just get me evidence that you signed up ($35 entry fee) and completed any distance.  Should I have a minimum distance, say, 1 meter? nah.  Just run!


Thursday, June 25, 2015

Political Correctness and the Decline of the West

Reader Maya M. has taken me to task over my post on Tim Hunt & political correctness. You can read the discussion in the comments of the post, and I've extended the offer to Maya to do a guest post or two if she wishes.  I hope she will.

Meanwhile, I've come across a couple of pieces I think relevant to the discussion of political correctness. In the first, from the Foundation for Economic Education's FEE Daily Aaron Tao documents and discusses how leftwing political correctness is shutting down free speech in both the U.K. and the United States.  It's an excellent and thoughtful piece, very well documented with chilling examples (read his hyperlinks).  I think he is right that this PC war on freedom of thought and speech is a result of post-modernism.

The second is an essay by Brendan O'Neill in Spiked (OK, OK, it's actually sp!ked) on "Feminism and the Turn Against Enlightenment."  O'Neill argues that lying behind the rise of what I have called radical feminism (or gender feminism) is the post-modernist rebellion against the Enlightenment and its universal values of reason, truth and freedom.  I don't fully agree with everything in the essay, but I think his main point is on target.  My differences?  For one thing, I am skeptical that radical feminism is the only manifestation of the left that has any popular currency in high places -- what about crazy ideas on race & privilege, or the supremacy of "the environment" over rights and interests of human beings, or leftist kow-towing to "the other" when "the other" happens to be fundamentalist Islam?)

Both of these are worth reading.

Sunday, June 21, 2015

Let's have a national conversation about gun control

I'll start: My rights are not negotiable.

Now, is there anything else anyone wants to talk about?
_______________________________________
Photo: Unforeseen Contingencies chief blogger Charles N. Steele puts a round into the A zone of a USPSA target.

Friday, June 19, 2015

Tim Hunt and the Political Correctness Scam

Political correctness is nothing more than a demand for blind, stupid, unthinking obedience to the whims of others.  Here's proof.

Amidst all the inane yammering over the various transexual and transracial fiascos of the day, case of Tim Hunt has been largely ignored, at least in America.  Tim Hunt, a brilliant English biochemist who has among his many honors the 2001 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, happened, during a talk in South Korea, to say the following: "Let me tell you about my trouble with girls … three things happen when they are in the lab … You fall in love with them, they fall in love with you and when you criticise (sic) them, they cry."

These lines were immediately circulated on social media, and in short order the feminist thought police were screaming shrilly for his head.  Always politically correct, academia complied, and despite his immediate groveling apologies, Hunt has been forced to resign from a number of positions.  The careers of both Hunt and his wife, Mary Collins, also a scientist, are in tatters.

This is the real face of the left and the true nature of political correctness.  One toes the line, or else.  Brilliance, dedication, hard work, and achievement count for nothing.  Obedience is the sole value for the politically correct left.

Do I exaggerate?  Well, consider this: everything Tim Hunt said in these comments is absolutely true. And if "but it's true!" can't be a defense, then political correctness is indeed nothing more than a demand for blind, stupid, unthinking obedience to the whims of others.

First, consider that Tim Hunt was addressing human problems that arise in the course of research work, that is, things that interfere with careful, objective thought.  One of the most powerful features of the human condition is sexuality -- our attraction to, 96.6% of the time, members of the opposite sex.  (Actually, if you read the link carefully you'll realize it's 97.3% of the time, but why quibble over something likely not within a 95% confidence interval.)  Thus his first two comments seem right on target -- it would certainly make sense that office (or lab) love affairs can be a source of distraction, a real problem.  It is certainly true that human sexuality -- which is overwhelmingly heterosexual -- is a powerful force and in work environments can be an unwelcome distraction.  It would be absolutely crazy to deny this. Yet for being so politically incorrect as to point it out, Hunt is crucified.

Then what about "when you criticize them, they cry?"  Look, everyone knows that women are far more prone to crying than men.  In the course of teaching thousands of undergraduate and graduate students (I once tried counting, and some years ago was certainly over 2,000) I have never once seen a male student cry, anywhere, for any reason.  On the other hand, it is not at all rare to have a female student cry in my office... usually with fairly good reason, but sometimes over small things.  Similarly, my ex-wife Johanna told me that many times her female doctoral students burst into tears over their dissertations... so far as I could tell, it happened yearly; female hysterics seemed to be a regular job hazard for her.  It's quite clear that women and men are not the same emotionally, and yes, sometimes women cry or otherwise go to pieces emotionally, and sometimes very inappropriately and unprofessionally.  Tim Hunt is exactly right about this, and the feminists and their politically correctly emasculated lapdog men hate him for pointing out this truth.  Yet the irony is that, in other contexts, feminists themselves point it out too, and trumpet it as a virtue of women.  We've all heard feminists claim that politics would be different with more women in power, because women bring bring a different perspective, and in particular more sensitivity and empathy.  Of course.  That's why they cry more.  Feminists themselves recognize this.

One of the clearest instances of this I've seen was some years back at a Southern Ecomonics Association panel on "feminist economics."  The panelists, all women and all self-described feminists, unanimously agreed that "feminist economics" (there's a reason I put this term in quotation marks) is different from regular (male) economics because women are more caring and sensitive and emotional and nurturing and such.  The panel proceeded to jump to various confused conclusions, for which audience member Deidre (then Donald) McCloskey took them to task, but the important point for our purposes is that feminists readily acknowledge the emotional, intellectual, and biological differences between men and women... if and when it suits their purposes.  But if anyone else, like poor Tim Hunt, points them out at any other time, there'll be hell to pay, especially if such inconvenient truths poke holes in feminists' claims of women being at least equal to men in every way.  (Equal?  I have run zillions of races in distances from 1 mile to 100 miles... in every one of them there was a separate division for female competitors.  Since the "first place" woman rarely finishes in even the top ten if there's a big field, I can only surmise that this is because being female is a handicap in running.  Feminists never complain about this unequal treatment, so I concur they agree being female is a handicap.  Women just aren't as good in most sports, in general, and we all know this.)

So there's the scam of political correctness.  Feminists know women are different from men, and in some respects inferior.  They know that they are, in general, more emotional than men.  I suspect that in some ways women are superior to men, but I cannot think of any feminist argument to this effect, other than their intermittent claims to superior empathy and emotionalism.  (Incidentally, it should be noted that in some circumstances being more emotional is an asset and in others, a weakness.)

So the Hunt fiasco is a case study in the intellectual bankruptcy of political correctness, a poster girl for such bankruptcy.  Two brilliant scientists, whose work quite literally advances human life, are brought down because one of them failed to to grovel sufficiently at an ideological idol.  Political correctness is indeed nothing but a religious doctrine -- irrational, incoherent, and rather easily punctured.  Those who fail to obey are branded as heretics and immolated, crucified, or ostracized.  That's today's left for you.

But think carefully about it, it gets worse.  PC leftists, including feminists, are loathe to criticize Islam and even Islamic fundamentalists.  Sam Harris and John Pepple repeatedly document this so I won't bother to do so here.  (For example, in Moral Landscapes Harris recounts his debate with a feminist who went so far as to say it is acceptable that a man throw acid in a woman's face in matters of honor, since that's the culture of some traditional Islamic societies.  Or see an example from Pepple here. )  The conclusion is obvious.  Vicious and utterly anti-female Moslem fundamentalists are exempted from PC criticism, while a poor sap like Tim Hunt has his name and career destroyed for a few random inadvertent comments that happen to be true.  I suppose there many reasons for this, but one very important one is that when challenged, Moslem fundies do their damnedest to kill you, while Tim Hunt collapsed like a wet noodle.  The difference between the two is that Tim Hunt, even though he is right and seems to basically a very decent man, has no moral clarity and thus feels uncertain and is easily intimidated.  The Moslem fundmentalists, on the other hand, have a kind of moral clarity about them.  Their ideas are flawed and evil, but they have a deep belief in them and in their own actions in service of these beliefs, and so they are not easily intimidated at all.

So what of the advocates of political correctness, do they have any confidence or clarity in their moral vision?  Certainly not -- that's why they capitulate to Moslem fundamentalists.  Had Tim Hunt let them have it with a strong, confident, rational defense of his comments, one which pointed out that they are both true and of trivial importance, I suspect the PC mob would not have succeeded in lynching him.  They would have been the ones intimidated.  For political correctness really is a scam; save for a few poor crazies, no one really believes in its values.

There's a lesson here.  Western Civilization seems to be undergoing something of a moral-intellectual crisis, in thanks largely to the leftists who have seized the reins.  But I predict that this will be a passing thing, and that when the West regains its moral clarity, it will overwhelm the rest of the world.  And that will be a good thing for everyone, because it will overwhelm the world in the service of one of its greatest discoveries -- individualism and individual rights.

Thursday, June 18, 2015

And now

back to our regularly scheduled programming.

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