Friday, October 30, 2020

Election Predictions: Trump Wins... America Wins!

The 2020 election is upon us.  I would say "almost upon us," except that voting began in September, I believe.  Julie and I have already voted, absentee in person.  This is an insane way to conduct an election.  There should be one day (1) and voting should be done in person.  One should have to identify oneself as a legal and properly registered voter.  The nonsense of mail-out-mail-back ballots, no voter ID, same-day registration, DMV registration, and the rest come from people who do not give a tinker's dam about principles and legitimacy.  

The nonsense is purely partisan.  There are two kinds of people who are inclined to vote for the demagogic left.  The first is the progressive intelligentsia, which hopes to direct society from the top down.  The second: the irresponsibles.  The less self-responsible one is, the more likely one will support an ideology that denies individual self-responsibility, blames others for problems, and looks to others for solutions, i.e. the ideology of leftism.  

The problem for the leftist intelligentsia is that the less responsible one is, the less reliable one is.  Hence an important part of the Democrat voter base might not actually vote.  This partly explains why Democrats endorse everything they can think of to reduce the cost of voting: mail-out-mail-back ballots, no voter ID, same-day registration, DMV registration, six week voting periods, 24/7 drive-in voting stations (apparently there is such a thing), illegal alien voting (in some California local elections), and proposals for voting by sixteen year olds.  They don't actually believe in voting as a method of learning what responsible, thoughtful people think government should be or do -- they just see it as process to be manipulated to gain power, and if the results of a vote don't give them power, they reject it.  That's why Hilliary Clinton, John Podesta, and related owlhoots have insisted that no matter how the vote goes, Joe Biden should not concede  That's why, after losing the Brexit vote, the globalist Euroweenies denied its legitimacy, condemned the electorate, and did everything they could to ignore it. (BTW, the rest of the explanation why the leftist intelligentsia wants lower standards and easier voting is that it makes it easier for them to cheat.

With all of this in mind, let's first look at Unforeseen Contingencies' predictions for the upcoming election.

1. There will be substantial attacks, riots, and covid shutdowns directed against polling places that tend to be strongly Republican on Election Day.  I'm 50% certain.

2. Trump wins.  He takes the Electoral College.  80% certain.  The polls might say otherwise, but the polls are wrong.

3. This will be apparent within 24 hours of the closing of the polls. 90% certain.

4. Biden and the Democrat Party will sue in various jurisdictions to change voting outcome.  100% certain.

5. There'll be massive riots in major cities and also in DC.  (Washington DC is not a major city.)  100% certain.

6. Republicans will keep the Senate.  60% certain.

7. Republicans will retake the House, 55% certain.

While I'm at it, let's do a preliminary look at the Unforeseen Contingencies Predictions for 2020.  Predictions 1, 2 , and 6 (Trump acquitted, Biden nominated, multiple attacks on Republican headquarters and supporters) we've hit home runs.  Number 7 (no war with Iran)seems very likely to be correct.  Number 8 (worst winter ever) failed, and 9 (I complete four ultras, including a 100 miler) seems doomed to fail, since four of my planned ultras were cancelled in honor of the Wuhan flu.  (I guess that's why the canceled them.)  The others are still in running and I stick by them, especially the wild card.

On Election Night I'm planning on attending a local anti-lockdown assembly (it will actually be a genuinely peaceful assembly, unlike a Black Lies Matter riot).  And later I will be interviewed on our college radio station.  If there's a Soundcloud file, I'll post.

In the meantime, dear reader(s), stay well.  Write if you can.  And stay positive.  Liberty will win.

Now hear this!

Greetings, dear readers!  (Readers? We have readers?)  We at Unforeseen Contingencies have been in hiding but are about to resume blogging.  Here's a quick rundown on upcoming posts.  

First, we'll have election predictions, plus a preliminary look at UC's 2020 predictions, which are proving to have been perspicacious.

Second, "we" completed the 2020 running of the Le Grizz 50 Mile Ultramarathon.  Actually, "we" is highly appropriate here, as four friends joined me and ran the race.  

Third... well, a whole lot of other things are coming.

Back at it!

Thursday, October 29, 2020

Courage and Strength, not socialism

Donald Trump's latest add, banned by Democrat platform CNN.

Real posts from your chief blogger coming.

Monday, October 26, 2020

The Creation of Justice Barrett

Friday, October 02, 2020

Jordan Peterson on Cultural Marxism

This is important. Dr. Jordan Peterson outlines the danger of cultural Marxist thought and the cancel culture.

Friday, August 21, 2020

We Love America

Yaakov Shwekey. I agree with 100% of this.

Monday, July 13, 2020

Beaverhead 55K: the best place in the world!

Ultra number 51! 

This past Saturday, July 11, I completed the Beaverhead 55K Endurance Race along the Continental Divide on the Montana-Idaho border.  We had perfect conditions on a spectacular course, the race organization and support was masterful, and fellow runners were fun and inspiring.  What a great day!

The 55K race starts at Lemhi Pass on the MT-ID border and runs north on the divide, so as often as not you have your left foot in Idaho and your right in Montana.  Lemhi Pass is 7,373 feet above sea level (2,247 m.).  There are ups and downs, but over the next 28 miles the course climbs to 10,500 feet (3182 m.) and the terrain becomes progressively harder.  When you are finally at wit's end, the course suddently veers off the divide into Idaho, plummeting straight down in the hardest, worst downhill I've ever encountered in a race.  It finishes among the sage brush in range country.  I've definitely done much harder terrain, but only in mountaineering, sheep hunting, and backpacking, never as a race.  It reminded me of taking the hardest parts of the Elkhorn 100K, the Devil's Backbone 50 Miler, and the Ed Anacker Bridger Ridge Run and sticking them together.  Awesome!

The day before the race I drove to Lemhi Pass, where I camped with Stacey Dunn of Elkhorn and Le Grizz fame, her husband and sons, and five other friends of theirs from Polson MT.  I was awake at 5:00 AM, dressed, broke camp, and ate, and was ready for the 7:00 AM start.  The early part of the race is in pine forest; the Continental Divide Trail (CDT) winds through the trees basically on the divide.  I ran with Stacey and several of her friends, plus some other people.  After the first aid station there's a point where the trail turns 180 degrees and heads south for a bit.  I was running alone here, and it was a bit disconcerting because this part of the trail is a bit faint and I wondered if I'd somehow switched to a game trail.  But there were runner tracks and eventually another CDT marker, followed by the pink and yellow ribbons that mark the course. 

I'll not give a blow-by-blow account of the race.  It's enough to say the farther you go the higher you climb and the tougher the terrain.  It was as beautiful and as challenging as any course I've ever seen.  There's a 100K version that starts 28 miles south of the 55K course and covers the 28 plus the 55K.  I would love to do another 100K but I had originally signed up for that only because the 55K was already full.  My training wasn't what it needed to be for 100K, and Race Director David Tarkalson kindly allowed me to switch to the shorter race.  55K was plenty.

I've already had four ultras cancelled.  I'm so happy that Tarkalson and the Beaverhead crew forged ahead and did this.  They had to put in some Wuhan flu precautions (hand sanitizer and face covers at the start, finish, and aid stations, for example) and even in these challenging conditions the organization was, again, masterful.  The organizers really exemplified the spirit of ultrarunning: no quitting, difficulties are there to be overcome.  RFM!  We need more of that!

It was a great day on the continental divide.  Many thanks to David Tarkalson and the Beaverhead team, to Stacey and her husband for hosting a great camp and hauling me and my gear around a bit, and the various people I ran with.

So now, out of my original plan of six I have one ultra left on the schedule for this year, the most important one: Le Grizz.  Onward!

Burn area early in the course.

Montana behind me.

Sidehill trail.

The course ahead.

Up we go!

Runner at 10,000 feet.

Look closely. (There are three runners silhouetted against the skyline to the right of the peak.)

"A great day in the best place in the world!"

Tuesday, July 07, 2020

The Importance of Freedom

Here's my 4th of July article posted on Springfield Armory's blog, The Armory Life.  America is the only country founded on philosophical principles.  America is, fundamentally, a set of moral principles.  As I explain, individual liberty is the foundation around which the entire American system is structured.  Protecting and advancing this liberty was the purpose of founding America, and it remains the organizing principle.  People who do not understand this find the American system mysterious or confusing, but the confusion is based in their own ignorance.  Read my piece, it explains.

Many thanks to Springfield Armory for the opportunity to publish this.

Photo: M1A Scout Squad rifle, one of my favorites of Springfield's tools of liberty.

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