Friday, August 08, 2014
Quick note to our friends in ISIS, Hamas, and their supporters
"O Muslim devil and damned devil's kith and kin, secretary to Lucifer himself. What the devil kind of knight are you, that can't slay a hedgehog with your naked arse? The devil shits, and your army eats. You will not, you son of a bitch, make subjects of Christian sons; we've no fear of your army, by land and by sea we will battle with thee, fuck your mother.
"You Babylonian scullion, Macedonian wheelwright, brewer of Jerusalem, goat-fucker of Alexandria, swineherd of Greater and Lesser Egypt, pig of Armenia, Podolian thief, catamite of Tartary, hangman of Kamyanets, and fool of all the world and underworld, an idiot before God, grandson of the Serpent, and the crick in our dick. Pig's snout, mare's arse, slaughterhouse cur, unchristened brow, screw your own mother!
"So the Zaporozhians declare, you lowlife. You won't even be herding pigs for the Christians. Now we'll conclude, for we don't know the date and don't own a calendar; the moon's in the sky, the year with the Lord, the day's the same over here as it is over there; for this kiss our arse!"
This is one of my favorite political statements, after the Declaration of Independence and the Oath of the Montana Vigilantes. Sound principles, courage, and eloquence, all in one neat statement. (This one is also a bit crude, I admit.) Thie text is the response of Ukraine's Zaporizhian Cossacks to the Sultan of Turkey when he demanded they put down their arms and swear allegiance to him. The accompanying picture is one version of Ilya Repin's depiction of the writing of the letter.
There should be no doubt that at some point those who defend civilization will have to take the same stance and kill ISIS. They will have to kill Hamas. They -- OK, we -- cannot coexist with savages who believe they have a holy duty to destroy liberty and modernity and impose their savage values on us. ISIS beheads Christian children and displays their heads in public as decorations. Hamas tunnels under kindergartens and prepares to murder thousands of children. These are homicidal maniacs riven by crazy theology. Currently the leadership of the civilized world is paralyzed by leftwing political correctness and sees political Islam as a perfectly reasonable reaction to Western civilization. But the left's ideology is idiotic and unsustainable; it won't last. And neither with political Islam. In the end, ISIS and Hamas will be destroyed, because no one with even a vestige of sanity wants to live under the systems they'd impose.
So"kiss our arse" and "screw your own mother," stupid Islamist mohammedans and friends. The future belongs to the rational.
Tuesday, July 22, 2014
As a quick note, UC fully supports the efforts of the Ukrainians to rid themselves of Putin and his assassins. "We" also support the efforts of the Israelis to smash Hamas. Frankly, in both cases, the only real solution is to kill the enemy. There are times when palaver and negotiations are warranted; these are always to be preferred when real discussion is possible. But in these two cases, Ukraine and Israel, the civilized faces an existential threat. One does not negotiate with those who propose to exterminate you -- meeting them halfway means suicide.
Incidentally, support for Ukraine and Israel in these wars is the real libertarian position. In both cases, people who want more freedom are fighting desperately against thugs who would eliminate all freedom. Phony "libertarians" (e.g. Ron Paul, Lew Rockwell, and similar buffoons) who praise dictator Putin and sympathize the with totalitarian terrorists of Hamas are not libertarians, but statists willing to lick the boots of any tyrant, so long as America is denounced in the process.
Monday, April 14, 2014
Ukraine and beyond
As Russia's war for territorial expansion continues, economist Anders Åslund explains why Putin must win at all costs, and what can be done about it. I agree. Incidentally, Åslund was on the board of directors of EERC-Kyiv when I taught there and I met with him on occasion. I think a great deal of him.
Those "green men?" Economist Paul Gregory provides solid evidence that they are indeed Russian troops who have invaded Ukraine.
And political scientist Alexander Motyl shows why Russia's actions easily qualify as state-sponsored terrorism under U.S. and E.U. law.
These are dark times. May Putin's schemes come to ruin, and may Ukraine escape bondage to his criminal regime. Unfortunately, Putin's targets include more than just Ukraine.
From the Baltic Times,
Estonia's Interior Minister tries to reassure people that "it can't happen here," but...
Some of Putin's shills are already calling for parts of Estonia become Russia.
And Latvia claims Russians are already doing advance work looking for Russia supporters.
Here's a thoughtful piece discussing the implications. If the West does not treat the Budapest Treaty (under which Ukraine surrendered its nuclear weapons in return for security guarantees) as binding, will the NATO agreement be any more solid? What conclusions will China, Japan, Israel, and others draw if the West allows Putin to invade Ukraine?
Dark times indeed.
Sunday, April 13, 2014
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Secretary General of NATO, has a fairly perceptive analysis of Russia's behavior. It's a pity he has to conclude with a call for the primary culprit to voluntarily de-escalate. But so far, the West appears to be interested only in marginal responses, so Rasmussen can do little else. NATO also has a useful fact sheet dispelling the lies Putin and Lavrov tell about NATO and Ukraine.
One of my current students has just sent me this excellent State Department fact sheet that refutes ten Russian myths about the current situation in Ukraine. Of course, it's worth reiterating that these aren't honest misunderstandings but intentional disinformation concocted in the Kremlin. (Thanks, Ashley!)
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, economist at UC Berkeley (and one of my former students in Kyiv) compares George Kennan's analysis of the USSR with Russian behavior under Putin. It's not very reassuring.
Also from VoxUkraine, Kateryna Dronova of UC Berkeley gives an excellent analysis of language in Ukraine and explodes the lie that the Russian language is under any sort of assault (one Putin's most absurd claims).
And a Belarussian opponent of Lukashenka says Putin is contemplating attacking Ukraine from Belarus as well, with Lukashenka's help. If so, may Putin's forces get stuck -- permanently -- in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone.
Photo: from Pussy Riot's protest of a couple of years ago. Incidentally, a number of You Tube videos critical of Russia and Putinism seem to suddenly be unavailable.
Hot War Begins in Ukraine, and My Predictions
Meanwhile, Russian media has mounted a full Soviet-style disinformation campaign to convince the citizens of Russia that the West and Ukrainian-speaking fascists have already mounted a genocidal war on ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers.
Thursday, March 27, 2014
Waking up to War
Now some are starting to sound the alarm:
- Today's Kyiv Post outlines why they believe a full Russian invasion is imminent.
- Moscow Times was two days ahead on this.
- This piece in Foreign Policy explains some of the timing and why Putin need to act soon.
- And General Philip Breedlove, USAF and Supreme Commander of NATO, has stated it looks like Russia is prepared to fight all the way across Ukraine to Moldova.
Recall Unforeseen Contingencies' analysis of three weeks ago? I hate to say "I told you so." And I still have slim hope that I won't be able to... but that slim hope is dwindling fast.
Friday, March 21, 2014
"Imagine that one morning some people unexpectedly enter your flat. You don’t know them, they look scary and they’re armed. They don’t touch you. They talk to you politely. They use your toilet, bathroom, but are extremely courteous. And then they say: "Let’s continue to live this way!" I’d like to ask you: would it be better that they discussed how you will live together BEFORE they broke into your flat, or AFTERWARDS? Please excuse me, but that’s an answer to your question."
Chubarov neglected to mention that the last time this was done, Tatars were butchered and deported. Stalin decided they were suspect. But relax, relax, this is 2014, not 1944, a kinder and gentler time. Putin puts it this way:
"I believe we should make all the necessary political and legislative decisions to finalize the rehabilitation of Crimean Tatars, restore them in their rights and clear their good name."
So don't worry, Refat, everything is OK. Putin simply wants to rehabilitate you.
War is Inevitable
And when it comes, Russian forces will use Ukrainian women and children as shields. So says Vladimir Putin. Motyl's analysis of Putin's recent press conference makes this seem very probable.
Here's an excerpt, from the official Kremlin translation:
QUESTION: But there are Ukrainian troops, there is the Ukrainian army.
Thursday, March 20, 2014
Putin's Speech on Crimea and other "reassuring" notes
Russia has now captured three Ukrainian ships (wow, does the "referendum" also give Russia Ukraine's navy?), Russia is massing troops in Crimea and on Ukraine's northern and eastern borders, and has been conducting military "exercises" near the Estonian border. The Russian government is now expressing concern over the rights of Russian speakers in Estonia as well.
Belarus' Charter 97 site (run by Lukashenka's opposition) has some interesting items. Petro Symonenko, head of the Ukrainian Communist Party, has fled to Minsk. The Belarusian military appears to be mobilizing and Russia has deployed combat aircraft to Belarus. They also report that Putin and Lukashenka were regular guests of Yanukovych at Mezhyhirya.
Meanwhile, Ukrainians seem to increasingly expect a Russian invasion. Also interesting -- a "leaked" document that describes a Russian plan to subvert and take Ukraine.
It's hard to know what to make of some of the reports, such as this last one, which appears to be a faked document. But here's one I can comment on. Chuck Hagel has received "assurances" from Russia's Defense Minister that Russian troops on the eastern and northern borders will not invade Ukraine. My comment: if Russians do intend to invade, what answer will they give to that question, Chuck?
Rhetorical question, of course (and hence a comment). I don't think Chuck Hagel reads Unforeseen Contingencies