Monday, January 02, 2017

2016 in Retrospect: Unforeseen Contingencies’ Successful Predictions!

If 2016 has a theme, it is “the year of unforeseen contingencies.”  Despite having the full resources of the Unforeseen Contingencies research department at my disposal, I still found it difficult to make predictions for the year.  I’m not the only one to experience this; professional pollsters and prognosticators were humiliated with their erroneous predictions of outcomes of the Brexit vote and the U.S. elections.  I, on the other hand, still managed to repeat Unforeseen Contingencies 70% prediction rate from last year.  Let’s see.

At the start of the year “we” made ten predictions, P1 – P10 (plus an 11th wild card prediction, but we don’t count these, they are just wild speculations for fun).  Here’s how we score ourselves:

P1: Clinton would be the Democrat presidential nominee and FBI rank-and-file would complain about failures to charge her with felonies.  Hit. When James Comey failed to charge Clinton or even say she was indictable, FBI agents who had worked on the case did indeed express their outrage.  Even more, FBI agents working under federal prosecutors in New York continued to pursue the Clintons, an effort that is ongoing.  And frankly, the secret meeting between AG Loretta Lynch and Bill Clinton just prior to Comey’s first press conference is one of the most heinous examples of corruption at the federal level in my lifetime, possibly the worst.  I hope these criminals are yet prosecuted, and they may well be, if we can get Jeff Sessions as AG.

P2: The GOP convention would involve an attempt by the establishment to push an establishment candidate.  Miss. It didn’t happen. 

P3: In a GOP split, the establishment would fail to support a non-GOP-establishment candidate.  Hit. The always-reprehensible Bushes, John McCain, Mitt Romney, future U.N. representative Nikki Hailey, and even Paul Ryan publicly opposed Trump.  Ryan did eventually back him, grudgingly.  Such behavior showed that the establishment is uninterested in freedom, the Constitution, and protecting America, given that the alternative was Clinton.  This is not a surprise to me; I think they generally share the left’s lust for power and contempt for American values.  They simply aren’t fanatic about the latter, as the left is.

P4: Mumbai-style attack with at least 100 casualties, plus race riots, in the U.S.  Hit, unfortunately.  In the Orlando nightclub massacre, a jihadist who pledged allegiance to Daesh killed 49 and wounded 53.  And race riots occurred in Milwaukee August 13-15, and Charlotte September 20-21, both times in response to police shootings of black thugs who were armed with handguns and threatening the police.  Let’s hope Attorney General Sessions quickly brings the Black Lies Matter movement under investigation.

P5: Grassroots activism would accelerate, and be condemned by the political class. Hit. While this one was vague, it seems an obvious hit.  We’re “a basket of deplorables,” you see, and “irredeemable,” as one leftist observer put it.  The hysteria of the leftwing intelligentsia – politicians, academics, media, and professional agitators NGO representatives following Trump’s victory are a good illustration.  As for Americans preparing themselves against the political class, 2016 was a record year for both firearm sales and applications for concealed carry permits.  It also was characterized by high levels of Tea Party activism, and advancing of the Article V Convention movement.

P6: Trump beats Clinton. HIT! The wicked witch is dead!

P7: China fires on a U.S. aircraft or vessel.  Hit.  I’m willing to call seizing a U.S. Navy vessel an attack, and that’s sufficient for me.  I greatly appreciate, by the way, that president-elect Trump accepted a congratulatory call from the President of Nationalist China, both because Free China deserves support, and because the thugs in Beijing understand the concept of playing hardball.  If one deals with a s=despotic regime, show strength, not weakness.  Despotic regimes crush weaklings.  That’s why China, Russia, Iran, Daesh, et al. have had such success in the last eight years.  America’s girly-man president Obama intimidates no one.

P8: The economies of China and Russia would worsen, and that of the U.S. will not.  Miss.  I had two of three.  Official Russian state statistics claim that Russia’s GDP declined by 0.5% this year.  (For reasons I can’t understand numerous analysts seem to simultaneously claim the Russian economy a success this year.)  And the economy of the United States did not decline, and seems to have improved somewhat.  But China also seems to have been able to avoid catastrophe and maintain growth, despite increasing debt and a weakening of the renminbi.  I expected some sort of crisis in China and was certainly wrong.

P9: Merkel’s career a shambles.  Hit. The despicable Angela Merkel has now admitted that her beloved refugees are fueling a wave of crime and terror.  She’s done more to advance the German right wing parties than they could ever have done themselves.  Well, Angela, it’s going to get worse, for both Germany and you.

P10: Extra-terrestrial life would be discovered.  Miss, darn it.  However, on Mars NASA has discovered substantial evidence of water and organic compounds.  There’s reason to think we are close.

Thus on all but P2, P8, and P10 we predicted correctly.  On P8 we were partially correct, and P10 is always admittedly a long shot.  Thus “we” at Unforeseen Contingencies are quite pleased with our 70% score. 

Happy 2017!

Photo: The nightmare that never happened!

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