Sunday, November 06, 2016
Candidates from Hell, Part 3: Donald Trump
It is very likely that Hillary Clinton will win the election. In December of last year I made my predictions, and suggested that Ted Cruz would win the Republican nomination and the general election. I guessed wrong, but Cruz did make a very strong showing. If he were the Republican candidate, I think he'd have crushed Hilliary in the debates and would be en route to a decisive victory at this point.
I also predicted that Donald Trump might beat Hillary Clinton, and but that his lack of principle, his impulsiveness, and his non-transparency make him very hard to predict.* I still don't buy the argument that he's secretly a Democrat operator, although even at this late date it's still conceivable. I do buy the argument that originally he never expected to win the nomination, and was both uncertain he wanted it and ill-prepared for it (the latter is obvious).
Certainly Trump is the GOP's candidate from Hell. Hilliary Clinton has proved a far worse candidate than expected. She's still under felony investigation, as is the Clinton Foundation, and it is clear to anyone actually following the emails and the investigations that she's guilty, despite FBI Director Comey's repeated statements that there are o grounds for charges. His latest statement, given today, is irrelevant, because the matter is out of his hands. But that's grist for another post; read these from Daily Caller, American Thinker, and National Review Online if you're interested in what's going on.
Trump ought to be up 20 points given all this. Instead, he's claiming he'll have a last ditch squeaker come-from-behind victory. I don't expect this, because he's been a candidate from hell:
*On 30 December 2015 I presciently wrote, "What about Trump? Trump never relies on anything like principles and it is hard to know what he would do. I’m rejecting the “Trump is a Democrat operative” hypothesis and take him at face value. He says what he thinks – which varies considerably at times because he doesn’t have a particular ideology or set of principles – and he wants to be president. A Clinton vs. Trump debate would be a real show. Trump would be quite willing to call her a liar (this should be done). He regularly uses ad hominem arguments and is ruthlessly politically incorrect – something for which he deserves great praise. I can’t predict such a cage match and popularity contest, other than to say that the debates and election would be a free-for-all. The United States would become a reality TV program. Trump might well win the debates, and the election, but it is not easy to say."
I also predicted that Donald Trump might beat Hillary Clinton, and but that his lack of principle, his impulsiveness, and his non-transparency make him very hard to predict.* I still don't buy the argument that he's secretly a Democrat operator, although even at this late date it's still conceivable. I do buy the argument that originally he never expected to win the nomination, and was both uncertain he wanted it and ill-prepared for it (the latter is obvious).
Certainly Trump is the GOP's candidate from Hell. Hilliary Clinton has proved a far worse candidate than expected. She's still under felony investigation, as is the Clinton Foundation, and it is clear to anyone actually following the emails and the investigations that she's guilty, despite FBI Director Comey's repeated statements that there are o grounds for charges. His latest statement, given today, is irrelevant, because the matter is out of his hands. But that's grist for another post; read these from Daily Caller, American Thinker, and National Review Online if you're interested in what's going on.
Trump ought to be up 20 points given all this. Instead, he's claiming he'll have a last ditch squeaker come-from-behind victory. I don't expect this, because he's been a candidate from hell:
- He has run an incompetent, even non-existent ground game.
- He has spent as much time fighting the GOP as he has Clinton.
- He repeatedly has said insane things, e.g. families of terrorists should be executed, Ted Cruz' father killed John F. Kennedy, Mexico will pay the U.S. to build a wall, etc.
- His behavior is abominable, e.g. his ridiculous tweet war over some idiotic beauty queen whom he once called fat, his embarrassing boasting during a presidential debate about his genitals, his claims to have molested women on the "Access Hollywood" video.
- His basic ignorance of economics, of the Constitution, of political principles.
Any one of my students would make a better president than Trump. Almost anyone I know would make a better president. And unfortunately, he's the better of the two candidates who actually have a chance of winning.
2016 is truly a time of hellish candidates. Johnson (his running mate Weld is practically campaigning for Hilliary now), Clinton, Trump -- and while I won't waste a post on her, the Green's Jill Stein -- these are the worst candidates any of these parties have run in my lifetime. Hence this somber and true observation from the great economist Thomas Sowell:
Each political party has picked a loser this year. Unfortunately, one of them is going to win, and then the whole country can lose, big time.
If I may be more positive, there's no hope at all of fixing things at the federal level for the near term. If liberty has a future in America, it will be because of grassroots activity, it will be the private sector, and politics at the state and local level, that save it. We should simply accept this and resolve to do whatever we must...which will be a lot.
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*On 30 December 2015 I presciently wrote, "What about Trump? Trump never relies on anything like principles and it is hard to know what he would do. I’m rejecting the “Trump is a Democrat operative” hypothesis and take him at face value. He says what he thinks – which varies considerably at times because he doesn’t have a particular ideology or set of principles – and he wants to be president. A Clinton vs. Trump debate would be a real show. Trump would be quite willing to call her a liar (this should be done). He regularly uses ad hominem arguments and is ruthlessly politically incorrect – something for which he deserves great praise. I can’t predict such a cage match and popularity contest, other than to say that the debates and election would be a free-for-all. The United States would become a reality TV program. Trump might well win the debates, and the election, but it is not easy to say."
