Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Unforeseen Contingencies: Prophetic?

Not quite.  We're only batting 75%.  We're close, though.  This is a 50% improvement on last year's score, and sufficiently high that "we" at Unforeseen Contingencies are mildly taken aback.  What if we really do know what we're talking about?  But rather than blather, let's get to the accounting.

On 31 December 2012 we made ten (10) predictions for the coming year, plus two auxiliary "wild card" predictions.  Here are the results.

Prediction 1. Solar Storms will not shut down the American power grid to any appreciable extent. Hit for UC!

Proof: we are still able to blog, and you can read this.

Prediction 2. Assad's regime will fall and Syria will remain enmeshed in civil war. UC is half right.

Assad did not fall, but neither did he win the war.  I rather doubt it will end for a while, nor will Assad fall, unless he's very unlucky.

Prediction 3. The Democrats in the Senate will invoke the "nuclear option" and eliminate or greatly constrain the filibuster. Hit for UC!

I hate to say I told you so... boy, do I hate it!  This is very bad news.  The democrats really are hell bent on "transforming" America into a Progressive system. in which elites and experts dictate policy, unconstrained by Constitutional checks and balances and separations of powers that interfere with their "wise" choices. Too bad they don't realize that this is just another way to say "dictatorship."

Prediction 4. There will be at least one violent act of domestic terrorism against American gun owners. Miss.

I'm relieved.  Despite plenty of hatred from the left and many in the state, it appears they understand we gun owners are not to be trifled with.  The letter of the Utah Sheriffs' Association to Barack Obama promising to fight to the death against any unConstitutional gun ban he might try to impose is instructional... don't tread on armed people.  Incidentally, this letter should have been the news story of the year, but the left prefers to ignore such things so they can continue to dream that the rest of the us will grudgingly acquiesce to their schemes for utopia.

Prediction 5. The opening of the PPACA exchanges will prove to be a shambles. Hit for UC!

Whew, barely squeaked by on that one!  hahahahahahahahahaha

Prediction 6. It will become apparent that health insurance premiums will rise sharply. Hit for UC!

And it's going to get much worse.  Signups of the healthy, low risk people who are supposed to subsidize the pool will be very, very, very low.

Prediction 7. Chinese recession in 2013. Miss.

Those darned inscrutable Chinese! (Story here.)

Prediction 8. Civil disturbances in the U.S. Hit for UC!

There were indeed riots ostensibly tied to a "justice for Trayvon" theme, plus the housing voucher riot in Detroit.  Happily these remained small scale.  MSM ignored them, but that doesn't mean they weren't real.

Prediction 9. Success of Wiki weapons AR platform. Hit for UC!

It worked!  And then...

Prediction 10. A bill to ban or strictly regulate information on firearm design, software that encodes it, and 3D printer hardware and materials that will print it will be introduced into Congress. Hit for UC!

Bills to ban arms-making via printing and bills to restrict ownership of printers have indeed been proposed. But as it turns out, given the nearly infinite elasticity with which current laws are interpreted, the WikiWeapons project was shut down under existing "law."  You see, it was an "export business" and thus subject to ITAR (International Trafficking in Arms Regulations).  Of course, all the Defcad/WkikiWeapons project did was make ideas available for those to sought them.  It exported nothing.  And everyone who understands combat understands that there is no such thing as a dangerous weapon, only dangerous men... and it's their ideas and knowledge that make them dangerous.  Hence the necessity of idea control, an idea that always fails.

Wild card #1: Scientists will announce discovery of life on a planet in another star system. Miss.  

Another miss... but "we're" getting closer!

Wild card #2: Scientists will announce discovery of evidence of life on Mars. Miss.

And again, a miss.  But Rover has just found evidence of water on Mars, and scientists are hopeful that we're on the verge of discovering evidence of Martian life, and perhaps life itself.  My prediction was just a bit early, as you'll see!

So there you have it, a 75% success rate!  (Only the ten non-wild-card predictions count towards the tally.)  Even Nostradamus didn't hit this seventy percent rate (yet).  I can't claim to be a prophet -- a real prophet would have to hit 100% -- but we are way above what random guessing should do.  Quasi-prophet status, perhaps?
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So that's our final post of 2013.  May 2014 bring very good things to you, my beloved readers, to your respective countries, and to our world!

Picture: The prophet Isaiah, from a 1904 Bible Card.  I gather these were forerunners to baseball cards.

It is not usual for you to be silent for so long...especially given what is happening in Ukraine right now! NV
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