Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Quick thoughts on the Iowa Caucus

1. Ted Cruz won. He wasn't "supposed to;" polls had him below Donald Trump by five percentage points or more. He won by almost this many points.

2. He won while vowing to eliminate ethanol subsidies. This should be the most important story of the caucuses, but it is largely ignored. The Republican governor of Iowa specifically condemned Cruz and called for his defeat. Cruz won.

3. Jeb Bush outspent everyone else. He spent more than Cruz and Trump combined, yet scored worse (2.8% of votes) than Ben Carson (9.3%) and Rand Paul (4.5%).  So much for money determining everything.

4. Trump failed miserably.  If either Cruz or Rubio weren't in the race, I suspect most of their voters would not go to Trump.  That's likely true of Carson and certainly Paul supporters.  I don't believe any or them systematically "steal" votes from Trump, but I think they steal votes from each other.  If the pack thins out, a non-Trump bloc will grow.

5.  Hillary Clinton barely won.  This is a catastrophe for Clinton, since she had a 30% lead in the polls at one point.  This isn't her collapse, but she's in a mess.  She'll get a drubbing in New Hampshire.

6. Of course, the Iowa Democrats' caucus methods are obscure and non-transparent, so Bernard Sanders is expressing a bit of skepticism over the results.

7. I can hardly wait for Bush to leave the race.  I hope he takes Kasich and Christie with him.

8. Sanders supporters are in a tizzy because some ties were broken with a coin toss, and Clinton allegedly won 6 of 6.  But even "worse," one of Bernie Sanders' precinct captains was an illegal alien, and he and his illegal alien roommate could have broken the tie had they been allowed to caucus.  Unfair, he says.  On the other hand, "we" at Unforeseen Contingencies think this bastard should be arrested, jailed, and then unceremoniously deported.  Hector, go home, you socialist idiot.

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