Unforeseen Contingencies

Or your money back.

Unforeseen Contingencies scored 60% on "our" predictions for 2025 (so far, there's still a few hours left, and Prediction #10 is still looking good to us).

The new year offers us the opportunity to improve on this score.  Of course, things are quite chaotic, making this a difficult task.  But the entire staff of our highly professional, scientifically trained forecasting desk assures me they have are up to the challenge.  So without further ado, let's begin.

1. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson will remain Speaker for the immediate future, and Donald Trump will be confirmed as winner of the 2024 presidential election.  Weirdly, if we have this one wrong, there probably will not be a Speaker by January 20, in which case Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa will become Acting President. 

President Trump and his DOGE will go to war against the federal administrative bureaucracy.  Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will lead the charge, but lesser known figures such as James Sherk will play crucial roles.  So our prediction:

2. In 2025 the federal workforce will shrink by 10%. I don't think that's nearly enough, but Rome wasn't built in a day, nor dismantled in a year.  Supposedly the current federal "work" force is 3 million.  Demands that bureaucrats actually begin showing up at the office will start the process of shrinking 

 3. China will not invade Taiwan.  This is a tricky one.  China's position weakens over time.  Their economy is weak, their demographic problem grows, and neither is going to be reversed under Xi.  And while China gets progressively weaker, their best window of opportunity is closing.  The leftist Democrat administration is about to leave office.  The progressive/left are utterly incapable of offering serious opposition because of their addled understanding of how the world works and their moral incompetence. If China is to invade Taiwan, sooner is better for them than later, but Xi's internal problems and the difficulty of dealing with an unsympathetic American president will dissuade him from war in 2025.

4. Donald Trump will not impose tariffs on the E.U.  This means that the E.U. will be increasing its imports of American natural gas.  This is bad news for Putin.

5. Ukraine and Russia will still be at war at the end of 2025.  The Russian economy is in decline.  Russia is consuming its reserves.  The Ukrainians won't capitulate.  Putin needs to extricate himself while appearing a winner, but there's no easy way to do this.  

6. Substantial domestic chaos in the United States as the Trump administration cracks down on illegal immigrants, federal bureaucrats, and those who flout the law, especially state  & local officials and universities.  I expect riots matching the George Floyd riots of 2020, as well as violations of federal law by state and local officials.  How to score a hit?  Expect riots that shut down at least three major cities at once, and the high profile arrest by federal agents of at least one mayor or state official for harboring illegals.

7. Israel will undertake a massive attack on Iran, most likely on the Iranian nuclear facilities.  For a hit, the attack must be the bigger than any previous one.

8. The American economy will show a 3% growth rate by the end of 2025 as Trump curtails regulation.  This one is risky because of the federal government's shaky fiscal position and the enormous bank reserves that the Fed is paying interest on.  However, Trump 45 and now Milei have shown that with cuts in regulation, entrepreneurs are turned loose to create wealth.

9. There will be a serious attempt on President Trump's life.  It will fail.  It will look very much like an attempt organized by elements from within the federal government, but there will be no proof.  Prediction 9 is a corollary of Prediction 2.  I expect massive opposition from federal officials as they face the prospect of having their unchecked power stripped away.

10.  The existence of extraterrestrial life will be confirmed.  I'm surprised this hasn't already happened.

11. Wild card extra credit prediction: CEO and Chief Blogger Charles N. Steele will complete the Woodstock 100 Mile Race in September.  Bet on it!

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 14:29 2 comments

Unforeseen contingency: Trump re-elected! 

HAHAHAHAHAHA!

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 01:02 2 comments

Unforeseen Contingencies continue.

First, "we" at Unforeseen Contingencies are excited to hear that tonight Israel is bombing Iran.  May this be extremely destructive and effective, and the the IDF pilots all return safely.  I am really pleased at the destruction Israel is raining down on Hamas and Hezbollah, and hope and pray the same for the mullahs' regime.  The deaths of all of the top leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah is so deserved and welcome.  My the Iranian regime experience the same.

Second, the American election is nearly upon us.  Trump and Vance are decent men who do believe in individual liberty and will obey the Constitution.  Harris and Walz are corrupt Marxists at heart.  The election will not resolve America's internal struggles, but it will indicate who has the upper hand.  There is turmoil ahead, but if Trump and Vance can get into office, things are remarkably hopeful.

Third, I completed my 23rd Le Grizz 50 Mile ultramarathon on 12 October.  It was a great event.  I ran with a Michigan friend, Liz J. and many of my regular Le Grizz friends.  Two of my former students, Katie W. and Kyle F., ran the race for the first time and loved it.  My friend Kathy L. completed her 25th Le Grizz!  We did not see any bears, but a runner who was a bit behind us had a grizzly emerge from the woods about 10 yards from him, run across the road, and disappear into the woods on the other side.  I have already signed up for the 2025 race on October 11.  All readers should join us!

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 20:09 3 comments

American politics...  Unforeseen Contingencies is named for the event that is not only not expected in a probabilistic sense, but not even imagined.  In that sense, what we at Unforeseen Contingencies are observing does not really qualify as an unforeseen contingency for us, but for many it is.

First, there was the collapse of corrupt pedophile Joe Brandon during the debate, where his senility was revealed publicly for all to see.  Next, there was the attempted murder of Donald Trump by the Feds.  (I explain below.)  And now there's the Republican Convention, a political nominating convention unlike anything we have seen in a while: a event that overflows with principle and hope.

The debate: Biden is senile. It was obvious during the 2020 campaign that Joe Brandon was failing.  He has continually degenerated since then, and it is available for anyone to see.  Just see his 2016 convention address, or this  2014 clip of his unbelievable fitness (he nearly beats Barack Obama in a footrace around the White House!) (Um, er...  /s)  Biden's senility is now a matter of public record.  Bigwig Democrats are now admitting it.

Attempted murder of President Trump: Had it been successful, the attempt on the life of Mr. Trump would have plunged the Republican Convention into chaos and strengthened Joe Brandon's position.  But not only did the attempt fail, Mr. Trump rallied the crowd with a triumphant "Fight" and "USA!" chant.  Americans are hungry for a vision of courage, strength, and defiance against evil.  This was heroic moment of Trump's part, and iconic.    It resonates around the world.

The convention: There is much that could be said.  Suffice it to say that when the head of the Teamsters, and a black Democrat address a Republican convention because this is where normal Americans are welcome, there is a seed change occurring in American politics.  When renowned GOPe leader Mitch McConnell is booed at the Republican national convention, there is a seed change occurring in American politics.  (Don't miss the short speech by black Democrat Madeline Brame.  It will be six minutes well spent.)  The convention seems to be a celebration of hope and renewal of important values (entirely unlike the phony "hope and change" marxism of Barack Obama).

UC's bottom line is that we are potentially on the verge of a reversal of the destruction of Western civilization and the imposition of the twin scourges of statism and cultural marxism.  Certainly the battle is being fought.  And people appear to be rallying to the example set by Trump.  For many, this is an unforeseen contingency.  But whether it is anticipated or not, it is a very hopeful thing.

**  **  **  

Now, what's this about the Feds trying to assassinate Trump?  Well, if the things reported in the MSM are true:

1. The Secret Service (SS) decided not to control the most obvious position overlooking the venue.  Cheatle's excuse that the roof had a slope and thus was too dangerous to post anyone is idiotic and obviously false.  The murderer's body did not roll off the roof once he was eliminated.  The snipers who ultimately killed the assassin were posted on a much steeper roof.  And roofers regularly put shingles on roofs that are far  steeper, without plummeting to the ground.

2. The police who were stationed in the building observed and photographed the sniper 30 minutes before the  shooting.  He was using a range finder, a device that measures the distance to a target.  They noticed he had a backpack.  Yet he was not stopped and searched.  

3. Numerous people in the crowd noticed the assassin crawling on the roof and saw that he had a gun.  They videoed him and shouted and pointed him out to the SS.  This was more than a minute before the shooting.

4. A law enforcement officer (LEO) climbed the ladder the murderer had set, to see what he was doing.  The murderer pointed his rifle at the LEO, who retreated.

5. All of this was observed by LEO snipers on another, steeper rooftop, through their riflescopes and spotting scopes.  With these scopes you can read the brand name on someone's jeans at 400 yards.  So the LEO snipers knew that they had a man armed with a rifle trying to sneak up on the President.  They allegedly asked for permission to shoot, which was denied.  Unh... I lived in Pennsylvania for a year, and before I went I studied PA's self defense law.  I could have legally shot the murderer when he was crawling  with a weapon.  When he pointed it at the LEO, the case for shooting him was airtight.  And then he pointed it at the President.  Yet they didn't shoot him.

6. The murderer fired eight rounds at Trump, murdering Corey Comperatore and wounding three others, including the President.  The shots took 4-5 seconds.  The LEO snipers (SS?) waited that long to respond and kill the assassin, even though they had rifles mounted on tripods aimed at him.  The only reasonable conclusion is that they allowed him to touch off eight rounds.  This morning I ran an experiment with a shot timer.  In less than four seconds I can pick up a firearm and put two rounds into the A zone of two targets.  And I'm not a trained professional, just a an amateur enthusiast.  

7. Trump's security detail included women who are clearly out-of-shape and untrained.  His regular bodyguards had been diverted to cover a speech by Jill Biden.  He was given incompetent idiots who didn't know what to do; the fat one couldn't even figure out how to holster her pistol.

8. Local police were locked out of the venue and had to ram a gate with a police cruiser to get in, once trouble developed.  The SS is blaming local authorities for security lapses, an obviously ridiculous position.

This is not an exhaustive list (yes, there's more), but the only reasonable conclusion I can draw is that the Feds allowed the murderer to shoot at Trump.  They had many opportunities to stop him prior to him opening fire, and no legal restrictions that might have stopped them.  They observed him preparing to shoot, what with his range finding and his crawling around with a rifle and pointing at the LEO.  Once he started firing they allowed him to get off eight rounds, and only then did they kill him.  One would have to be stupid, addled by ideology, to think this is just a bunch of mistakes.  The same people who lied to FISA courts, bugged Trump Tower, promoted the Russian disinformation dossier, lied and claimed Hunter's laptop was simply Russian disinformation, have now tried to kill Donald Trump.  That's the obvious conclusion from the points above.

**  **  **

And these are in rough times, and they will get rougher.  God willing, reason and freedom will triumph.  And there's hope.  Unforeseen contingencies will prevail!

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 00:09 3 comments

Happy American Independence Day!  As is my usual practice, I have spent the morning rereading the Declaration of Independence and various meditations on it.  Today Law and Liberty had two that are particularly good.  250 Years of Jeffersonian Constitutionalism, by my friend Hans Eicholz, is a deep and careful analysis of Jefferson's "Summary View of the Rights of British America" and its implications for the Constitution as well as the Declaration.  It is worthwhile.

The second is Professor Paul Seaton's The Declaration's Timely Teaching on Immigration.  Seaton notes how the Declaration carefully distinguishes between the natural rights of each individual, a universal principle, and the political rights of a particular people to protect and defend their political order.  The Declaration applies this to immigration by noting George III had blocked laws facilitating immigration and naturalization.  Today our Federal government instead blocks these laws to facilitate mass invasion by unvetted, unaccountable, often hostile foreigners who are not to be naturalized.  Seaton points out how the Founders' understanding offers a rational alternative to bad ideas from leftists and national conservatives.  

Related to this theme, Scott Johnson has posted on the Powerline blog an excerpt from Abraham Lincoln's speech of 10 July 1858, in his annual "The Eternal Meaning of Independence Day" post, in which Lincoln makes clear that it is the moral principle of equal individual rights in the Declaration that makes America what it is and the binds Americans together, and also that this is a universal principle that can and ought to connect all men.  In The Eternal Meaning of Independence Day (2) Johnson quotes Calvin Coolidge on the Declaration.  An excerpt: 

If all men are created equal, that is final. If they are endowed with inalienable rights, that is final. If governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed, that is final. No advance, no progress can be made beyond these propositions. If anyone wishes to deny their truth or their soundness, the only direction in which he can proceed historically is not forward, but backward toward the time when there was no equality, no rights of the individual, no rule of the people. 

Finally, in the last letter he ever wrote in his life, the great Thomas Jefferson reflected on the Declaration and its importance: May it be to the world, what I believe it will be, (to some parts sooner, to others later, but finally to all,) the signal of arousing men to burst the chains under which monkish ignorance and superstition had persuaded them to bind themselves, and to assume the blessings and security of self-government. That form which we have substituted, restores the free right to the unbounded exercise of reason and freedom of opinion.

Hillsdale College has made a very nice short film dramatizing this, Last Days of a Revolutionary.

American Independence Day -- all people, everywhere, who love liberty, should study it, celebrate it, and live it.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 14:45 0 comments

 Of late I've been in touch with people in several lines of work who have expressed horror at what is happening in their fields.  Among these are instructors at medical schools and military officers.  In each case the story they tell is chilling: the imposition of insane woke ideology, demands of conformity to obviously harmful things, quotas for various identities resulting in incompetent people being promoted, and competent people leaving.

The immediate effects are obvious -- medicine and military are life-and-death professions.  An incompetent person can get a lot of people hurt or killed.  But there's another matter perhaps less obvious.  Driving competent people out of a profession results in a loss of knowledge that can't be replaced.  Even if DEI programs are suddenly ended after a few years and people entering these professions selected only for merit and competence, there will be a loss of people and knowledge, and training the next generation to previous high pre-DEI standards won't be possible.  Knowledge is lost and skills decay.  The longer DEI nonsense is pursued, the greater the loss and the worse the problem.  It will become increasingly difficult to recover. We will retrogress.

This is akin to a problem economist John Cochrane has identified with so-called degrowth and the environmental anti-technological movement.  If such a movement gets its way, it might well lock us into a downward spiral of poverty we cannot escape.  Resources have become increasingly abundant because our advances in knowledge and thus technology have allowed us to turn what were once worthless submarginal deposits and stocks into valuable sources.  Real prices of resources systematically fall.  But these deposits are often not physically accessible with older technology, and should we stop or reverse technological advance, we no longer have the more easily accessed resources of the past, trapping humanity in resource-scarce poverty.

This is remarkably dangerous.  Advocates of DEI, degrowth, the war on reliable energy (i.e. nuclear, fossil fuels, and hydro power) are effectively working for the suicide of the West.  In every way the "woke" agenda is destructive.  It must be reversed at all cost.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 19:56 0 comments

In the modern era, it is most likely that the two most warlike peoples in the world were the Germans and the Japanese.  Germany was hell-bent on war; for example, Gustav Schmoller, Adolph Wagner, and Merings (first name?) edited a volume published in 1900 that advocated Germany build a massive navy and rule South America.  Germany was the instigator of WWI, and Germany and Japan together started WWII.  Both countries built militaristic totalitarian regimes that plunged the world into war.  But militaristic no longer describes them; now they are arguably the most pacifistic nations in the world.  What happened?

In the Second World War both nations were utterly crushed.  They were defeated in battle, heavily bombed, and completely occupied.  They surrendered unconditionally to avoid total annihilation.  The result?  Peace!  And two previously warlike nations that subsequently became anti-war.  Harry S. Truman, Curtis LeMay, Dwight David Eisenhower, Winston Churchill, and the Allied forces should have received the Nobel Peace Prize for what they accomplished, but unfortunately did not.

Those who fight to crush aggressors and predators make peace, freedom, and civilization possible, and they should be recognized for their contributions.  Violence demonstrably begets peace, as the utter crushing of Germany and Japan show.  In this spirit, we at Unforeseen Contingencies propose that the Nobel Peace Prize for 2024 be awarded to Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF.  It is to be hoped, for the sake of the Palestinian people, that their spirit be so utterly crushed that, like the Germans and Japanese post-World War Two, they completely foreswear war and terror against Israel, and commit to living in peace and being as productive as the Germans and Japanese.  If this happens, the credit will go to Netanyahu and the IDF, for bringing peace.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 22:38 0 comments