Unforeseen Contingencies

 Off and running!  The Unforeseen Contingencies prognostication desk has just scored its first hit.  The communist Maduro is out.

"We" approve.  The Chavez-Maduro regime was communist.  The Venezuelan regime made war, fifth-generation war, on the United States.  China, Russia, and Iran all invested heavily in the Venezuelan regime, aimed at America.  The Venezuelan criminal organization Tren de Aragua operated in the United States with the support of the Maduro government (and still operates, but hopefully not for long).

As a libertarian, our Chief Blogger and CEO Charles Steele highly approves.  He points out that this makes the world freer, and that is what counts.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 10:32 0 comments

We have been away.  But all of us at Unforeseen Contingencies wish all of our readers a happy 2026, whether such readers actually exist or not.  

There were many interesting developments in 2025, but we at UC largely refrained from commenting.  Suffice it to say we do not approve of antisemites, we enjoy seeing the bombing of dictators, terrorists, and their operations, we don't want immigration by predators and parasites, and we think communists should not have political power.  We revel in having sufficient energy to live a first-world lifestyle and in seeing government bureaucrats forced to seek productive work (we hope).

With all that in mind, here are our predictions for 2026.

1. Extra-terrestrial life discovered and announced.  One of my friends tells me he has heard rumors there will be an announcement about UFOs and aliens; I will be extremely skeptical if that does indeed happen, and don't think such an announcement should count as a hit without corroborating evidence.  Realistically this would require faster-than-light travel, and any civilization capable of FTL travel will have better things to do than play cat-and-mouse games on Earth.  Findings by SETI or discovery of life in our solar system will occur, though.

2. Tucker Carlson will announce his conversion to Islam and Candace Owen will wear a hijab, at least once.  (If she puts on a burka instead, that counts).

3. Republicans will retain both houses of Congress.  Now I am getting on shaky ground, obviously.

4. The insurrection ("resistance") will face the law.  Federal criminal charges will be brought against at least one of the following: Tim Walz, Gavin Newsom, Ilhan Omar Elmi, Nancy Pelosi, Keith Ellison, J.B. Pritzker, and Mayor Brandon Johnson of Chicago.  If it is the Democrat mayor of a different major hellhole city, it also will count as a hit.  

5. At least one of the world's major dictatorships will collapse.  These include Venezuela, Iran, China, Russia, and North Korea, perhaps others.  Most likely, the communist regime in Venezuela will collapse.  Maduro will leave office, and possibly existence.  Iran is also a likely candidate.  Russia and China much less so, but the regimes are dependent on strong authoritarian leaders and do not have the institutional depth and thus stability of liberal regimes.

6. Putin will not agree to an end to Russia's war on Ukraine.  Ukraine will not fall, and until Putin dies, the war will continue.

7. Putin dies.  Natural causes.*

8. The U.S. economy does not suffer recession.  (This one is easy; so long as President Trump keeps cutting regulation and holding the line on taxes, entrepreneurship will do the rest.)

9. The Montana State University Bobcats win the FCS National Championship in football (that's American football).

10. Chief Blogger and Ultrarunner Steele completes the Beaverhead 55K (his 5th) and the Le Grizz 50 Mile (his 25th).  

I don't have a Wild Card this year.  It doesn't seem necessary, since most of these predictions are pretty wild.  But you may rest assured, they will come to pass.

Happy 2026!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* As opposed to supernatural.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 17:52 2 comments

July 4, 1776 is the day Americans said to Britain, "We don't need or want your government.  We can be our own authority, and follow fundamental truths and principles, instead of your arbitrary, unprincipled diktats.  Now shove off!"  Americans then had to kill a bunch of Brits to make it stick.

In that spirit of joyous defiance, and in lieu of our usual essays on the importance of the Declaration of Independence and this holiday, "we" at Unforeseen Contingencies will attempt to violate arbitrary and noxious edicts from European despots.  This should not be too difficult; the E.U. and the U.K. have all sorts of stupid rules about what things one must not say, and apparently they think these should apply to the worldwide web globally.  So let's see what we can do.  Here are some statements we think worth considering that (we hope) violate noxious edicts.

1. The European Union is a dictatorial and illegitimate regime and should be disbanded immediately, taking the Euro with it.  

2. The Starmer government in the U.K. is a band of criminals; he and his ministers should be arrested and prosecuted for protecting Muslim rioters and rapists, and for persecuting people who protest transgenderism, abortion, and pretty much anything else that people have been arrested for protesting in the U.K.

3.The World Health Organization is a criminal enterprise.  It should be abolished and Director-General Tedros should face a Nuremburg-style tribunal for his role in advancing the Covid lockdowns and related crimes.  These are capital offenses and if convicted he should face capital punishment.

I think but am not certain we are breaking European "laws" here, but all we've done is express political opinion (#1) and argue that there have been criminal acts that should be prosecuted (#2 and #3), so just in case, let's continue.

4. Islamism should be illegal.  Islamic government and sharia law are tyrannical and incompatible with advanced civilization.

5. It might not be true of all Islam, but current mainstream Sunni and Shia Islam are pernicious, noisome and ridiculous beliefs.

6. Climate change, as promoted by the IPCC, is a hoax.

There's a nice half dozen statements; surely something among them would offend U.K. police  and get me a visit, were I to post them in that formerly great land.  And I imagine I've advertently violated one E.U. regulation or other.  I certainly hope so, and hope someone in the U.K. and E.U. stumble across them today.

The United States of America were founded on the principle "that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights," and that governments exist only to protect these.  If governments fail in that and become destructive of these rights, then they should be abolished and replaced.  This is a fundamental principle, applicable to all times, people, and places, and the American Revolution first instantiated it.  Every human being who loves liberty and abhors tyranny should celebrate this 249th anniversary today.

Here is an excellent short piece by the eminent historian Wilfred McClay on the meaning and origins of the ideas in the Declaration of Independence.

Update 6 July 2025: Here's another short piece from Lloyd Billingsley on American independence from the U.N. and its ilk.  Very good!

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 15:26 0 comments

Three cheers for President Trump, the USAF, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the IDF!  Thanks to them, Iran no longer has a nuclear program.  This is one of the happiest developments in international affairs since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and a foreign policy triumph for America and Israel.  The neutering of Iran's military establishment and destruction of their atomic bomb program is one of the most promising advances for peace in a long time.

Some pro-Iran weirdos, such as the silly commentator Tucker Carlson, have tried to argue there is no evidence Iran had a nuclear weapons program, and that Iran was simply trying to develop civilian nuclear power.  It's impossible to take such arguments seriously.  First, Iran could simply have bought reactors, say, from Russia.  Second, if Iran simply had been developing civilian energy, there would have been no need to bury its programs in underground bunkers and block the IAEA from observing.  Third, even the Iranians admit they enriched uranium to at least 60%.  Power reactors require enrichment to 3-4%, 5% tops.  Only bombs require the highly enriched uranium Iran was developing.  

Iran has been the leading state sponsor of terrorism, arming and funding Hezbollah, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, the Polisario Front in Morocco,  Muqtada Al-Sadr's Mahdi Army, and many others.  Iran is behind numerous terror attacks, such as bombing of the Israeli embassy in Argentina in 1992 and 1994 bombing of the Buenos Aires Jewish Center, the October 7 massacres in Israel, numerous attacks on American military personnel, and attempted assassinations in the United States, including a plot against President Trump.  There is no reason why such a regime should be tolerated.  The destruction of the Iranian military leadership was warranted and justified, and so was destroying their atomic weapons program.

The bombing of Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan was certainly justified by libertarian principles.  A homicidal theocracy that exports murder around the world must not have nuclear weapons, and it is perfectly fine to bomb their program, and them, to oblivion.  This is particularly so since they were offered the opportunity to give it up peacefully, and instead adopt trade with the civilized, developed world to mutual benefit.  Since they refused, they have been crushed, justifiably.

It is heartening to finally see a Western leader or two stand up for civilization.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 16:52 0 comments

President Donald Trump has told Iran's "Supreme Leader" Khamenei that he must "unconditionally surrender."  Good.  The civilized world ought not tolerate savages and dictators who threaten freedom and peace of the rest of the world.  The Iranian government, a pack of belligerent religious loons on a quest for nuclear bombs, needs to be put down.  If Iran doesn't surrender, it's time for the USAF to drop some GBU-57 bombs on Fordow.

Powerline Blog and Ace of Spades HQ have included in their coverage of these events the outrage of the isolationist (and increasingly anti-Semitic) wing of Trump's supporters, such as Tucker Carlson. Here's an example from Ace at AosHQ, and here's a piece with a brief mention from John Hinderaker of Powerline.   

I think Donald Trump has a remarkable characteristic: to a very unusual degree, he seems to be a sort of mirror in which people project their imaginations.  While mostly we see this with his detractors on the left, certainly the isolationists imagined Trump was one of them.  A number of Tucker Carlson fans have told me so.  They also have told me that no one who cares about America should give a flip about Israel, about October 7, about Iran having nuclear weapons, about anything Russia does to Ukraine or Europe, or anything else abroad.  And any of us who do care are "neocon warmongers."

I'm not a neocon or a warmonger, it's simply obvious that liberty is essential and all these things the isolationists say we should ignore are very serious threats to liberty.  It's also hard to understand how anyone who pays attention could think Trump is an isolationist who thinks these things.  He has always emphasized that his first loyalty is to America, but also he understands that America is the leader of  world.  Trump '45 was certainly not anti-Israel; he moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, a thing to which other presidents had paid lip service.  Trump reversed Obama's policy and gave deadly weapons such as Javelin missiles to Ukraine to kill Russians.  Trump authorized attacks in Syria that killed at least 200 Russian soldiers of the Wagner Group and also destroyed at least 25% of Syria's combat aircraft.  In Iran, IRGC Gen. Soleimani was blown to pieces at Trump's order.  And Trump changed the rules of engagement established by Obama, allowing the U.S. military to destroy Daesh (ISIS).

But with Trump, people seem not to pay attention.  Instead, they seem to see what they want to see.  Apparently Khamenei was not immune, and now he and his regime have fallen through the looking glass, and into the fires of hell.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 23:09 0 comments

Happy birthday to: the American flag, the U.S. Army, and President Trump!  It's a great time to celebrate America.  

I won't write a long essay on this, but America is the reason ideologies like divine right of kings, totalitarianism, and socialism do not dominate the world.  And while American might, such as the U.S. Army, has been important, it is primarily America's ideals and America's incredible entrepreneurial and productive powers that have done this.  Which ideals?  America enshrined individual natural rights as the centerpiece of government, and made the commercial republic, where people pursue their own lives and well-being, not the visions of a ruler, as the fundamental principle of society.

Despite all the turmoil in the world today, the world's future is potentially very bright.  The world needs simply to implement the America ideals.

Happy Flag Day!

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 11:11 2 comments

The Israeli Air Force has just bombed nuclear targets in Iran.  There are rumors they also hit key figures in the Iranian nuclear program and the regime.  This is great news!  "We" at Unforeseen Contingencies  believe Islamist dictators are always fair game, and if there is a threat they'll acquire nuclear weapons, Whacking them becomes an imperative.

Benjamin Netanyahu just gave an address on the bombing.  It is excellent, morally and strategically sound.  Video is available on this ynetnews.com article.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 19:47 0 comments