Unforeseen Contingencies

Generally speaking, "we" here at Unforeseen Contingencies are fans of Donald Trump's two presidential terms.  There have been some grievous errors (Covid policy, tariffs), but on net, his work has been extremely beneficial and positive.  It is very possible that the attack on Iran is his greatest accomplishment of all.  It is a part of his recent foreign policy and promises much more advancement of freedom and civilization in the future.  Let me explain.

The Iranian regime, along with China and Russia, is anti-liberal... liberal in the classical sense of promoting individual liberty and the advance of civilization.  Iran, China, and Russia have been allied for some time.  A liberal world order has America as its center.  If America remains true to its principles and flourishes, much of the rest of the world will follow.  Hence America is an obstacle to the advance of Russian autocracy, Chinese communist hegemony, and an Islamic Ummah.  It is also an obstacle to a western technocratic elite.  Hence all agree, a traditional America must go.

Iran was developing nuclear weapons.  There is no doubt about this; it is well established that Iran had enriched uranium to the 60% level, enough for 11 nuclear bombs.  The Iranians themselves bragged about this.  The only use for such is a step to the 90% needed for a bomb; just 5% is the upper limit for nuclear power.  After the destruction of their Fordow nuclear weapons research site, the Iranians began building more fortified sites.  The killing of their top 49 leaders was well deserved and long overdue (49 so far, hopefully more to come).

The Iranian regime butchered Persians who dared to dissent -- over 30,000 recently.  They killed women who dared to uncover their hair.  They spread terror and war around the world, including violence in the United States, Argentina, Europe, all across North Africa and the Middle East... and they were building nuclear weapons and missiles that could reach the entire world, including the United States.  Extermination of this regime is long overdue.

The arrest of Maduro and destruction of the Iranian regime seem to be parts of an integrated strategy aimed at an even bigger threat.  China has now lost 20% of its oil supply, and the most heavily subsidized part at that.  The CCP's influence in South America and the Middle East has been reduced.  Chinese and Russian military equipment and doctrine have proven to be impotent against the U.S. military, at least when in the hands of clients.  The illiberal regimes of the world are on their heels.

I note that Cato Institute and other Professional Libertarian (TM) organizations are beside themselves over the Iran affair.  Yes, well, if you find yourself siding with Nicolas Maduro, the late Ayatollah Khamanei, Tucker Carlson, Candace Owen, Alexandra Ocasio Cortez, Rashida Tlaib, and Vladimir Putin, you are not a libertarian.  Libertarians are thankful for the destruction of tyranny.

Thank you, Mr. Trump.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 19:02 0 comments

There is nothing wrong with the free market.  But the term, "free market?"  That's a different matter.

I've been trying to convince advocates to refrain from using the term "the free market."  The term is a useful shorthand if one understands what it really means, but it lends itself to misrepresentation.  It does not say what is really free.

What "free market" really means is each individual is free to decide how to employ his or her labor, and free to make exchanges as he or she sees fit.  That is, each individual is free to propose exchanges, and to accept or reject proposed changes.  It is not "the market" that is free, it is individuals, who are free to order and direct their own lives.

Socialists and other enemies of freedom find it convenient to pretend to care about people while condemning the free market.  By explicitly stating what is entailed in the free market, we force the enemy onto the defensive.  It's much harder for them to individuals explain why it's desirable to get rid of free individuals than it is to get rid of an abstract free market.  "Free market" is a useful metaphor or shorthand, but we must emphasize that it really means free individuals.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 20:42 0 comments

We are one week into the new year and already the Predictions and Prognostications Desk at the Unforeseen Contingencies corporate headquarters has made two successful predictions and is well on the way to a third.  The Montana State University Bobcats won the FCS National Championship game over the Illinois State Red Birds, 35-34, in overtime.  It was a rough, messy game, with numerous mistakes, many flashes of brilliance, and MSU just barely eking out the victory.  Robert Service's line "deaths that just hang by a hair" comes to mind.  

If our reader (or readers! dare we hope?) care, the video highlights are here.  MSU's victory was made possible by two remarkable, nearly miraculous blocked kicks -- a Red Bird field goal at the end of the fourth quarter and an extra point kick in overtime.  Story here.

This might be the first (American) football post ever on Unforeseen Contingencies.  

Predictions 5 and 9 are in the bag!  Two hits!

But wait, there's more!

We are halfway to success Prediction 4.  The increasingly insurrection-y Democrat politicians of Minnesota, Governor Walz, Mayor Frey, and AG Ellis, are pushing the limits.  So too the new mayor of Seattle.  The moment one of them takes action against federal officers, they'll be arrested and charged.  Walz will be, anyway, as he is so deeply involved in all the Somali fraud scandals.

And already Putin's dark fleet is being hounded, and not just by the U.S., either.  This doesn't bode well for him.

This is shaping up to be a very good year!

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 18:42 0 comments

 Off and running!  The Unforeseen Contingencies prognostication desk has just scored its first hit.  The communist Maduro is out.

"We" approve.  The Chavez-Maduro regime was communist.  The Venezuelan regime made war, fifth-generation war, on the United States.  China, Russia, and Iran all invested heavily in the Venezuelan regime, aimed at America.  The Venezuelan criminal organization Tren de Aragua operated in the United States with the support of the Maduro government (and still operates, but hopefully not for long).

As a libertarian, our Chief Blogger and CEO Charles Steele highly approves.  He points out that this makes the world freer, and that is what counts.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 10:32 0 comments

We have been away.  But all of us at Unforeseen Contingencies wish all of our readers a happy 2026, whether such readers actually exist or not.  

There were many interesting developments in 2025, but we at UC largely refrained from commenting.  Suffice it to say we do not approve of antisemites, we enjoy seeing the bombing of dictators, terrorists, and their operations, we don't want immigration by predators and parasites, and we think communists should not have political power.  We revel in having sufficient energy to live a first-world lifestyle and in seeing government bureaucrats forced to seek productive work (we hope).

With all that in mind, here are our predictions for 2026.

1. Extra-terrestrial life discovered and announced.  One of my friends tells me he has heard rumors there will be an announcement about UFOs and aliens; I will be extremely skeptical if that does indeed happen, and don't think such an announcement should count as a hit without corroborating evidence.  Realistically this would require faster-than-light travel, and any civilization capable of FTL travel will have better things to do than play cat-and-mouse games on Earth.  Findings by SETI or discovery of life in our solar system will occur, though.

2. Tucker Carlson will announce his conversion to Islam and Candace Owen will wear a hijab, at least once.  (If she puts on a burka instead, that counts).

3. Republicans will retain both houses of Congress.  Now I am getting on shaky ground, obviously.

4. The insurrection ("resistance") will face the law.  Federal criminal charges will be brought against at least one of the following: Tim Walz, Gavin Newsom, Ilhan Omar Elmi, Nancy Pelosi, Keith Ellison, J.B. Pritzker, and Mayor Brandon Johnson of Chicago.  If it is the Democrat mayor of a different major hellhole city, it also will count as a hit.  

5. At least one of the world's major dictatorships will collapse.  These include Venezuela, Iran, China, Russia, and North Korea, perhaps others.  Most likely, the communist regime in Venezuela will collapse.  Maduro will leave office, and possibly existence.  Iran is also a likely candidate.  Russia and China much less so, but the regimes are dependent on strong authoritarian leaders and do not have the institutional depth and thus stability of liberal regimes.

6. Putin will not agree to an end to Russia's war on Ukraine.  Ukraine will not fall, and until Putin dies, the war will continue.

7. Putin dies.  Natural causes.*

8. The U.S. economy does not suffer recession.  (This one is easy; so long as President Trump keeps cutting regulation and holding the line on taxes, entrepreneurship will do the rest.)

9. The Montana State University Bobcats win the FCS National Championship in football (that's American football).

10. Chief Blogger and Ultrarunner Steele completes the Beaverhead 55K (his 5th) and the Le Grizz 50 Mile (his 25th).  

I don't have a Wild Card this year.  It doesn't seem necessary, since most of these predictions are pretty wild.  But you may rest assured, they will come to pass.

Happy 2026!

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* As opposed to supernatural.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 17:52 2 comments

July 4, 1776 is the day Americans said to Britain, "We don't need or want your government.  We can be our own authority, and follow fundamental truths and principles, instead of your arbitrary, unprincipled diktats.  Now shove off!"  Americans then had to kill a bunch of Brits to make it stick.

In that spirit of joyous defiance, and in lieu of our usual essays on the importance of the Declaration of Independence and this holiday, "we" at Unforeseen Contingencies will attempt to violate arbitrary and noxious edicts from European despots.  This should not be too difficult; the E.U. and the U.K. have all sorts of stupid rules about what things one must not say, and apparently they think these should apply to the worldwide web globally.  So let's see what we can do.  Here are some statements we think worth considering that (we hope) violate noxious edicts.

1. The European Union is a dictatorial and illegitimate regime and should be disbanded immediately, taking the Euro with it.  

2. The Starmer government in the U.K. is a band of criminals; he and his ministers should be arrested and prosecuted for protecting Muslim rioters and rapists, and for persecuting people who protest transgenderism, abortion, and pretty much anything else that people have been arrested for protesting in the U.K.

3.The World Health Organization is a criminal enterprise.  It should be abolished and Director-General Tedros should face a Nuremburg-style tribunal for his role in advancing the Covid lockdowns and related crimes.  These are capital offenses and if convicted he should face capital punishment.

I think but am not certain we are breaking European "laws" here, but all we've done is express political opinion (#1) and argue that there have been criminal acts that should be prosecuted (#2 and #3), so just in case, let's continue.

4. Islamism should be illegal.  Islamic government and sharia law are tyrannical and incompatible with advanced civilization.

5. It might not be true of all Islam, but current mainstream Sunni and Shia Islam are pernicious, noisome and ridiculous beliefs.

6. Climate change, as promoted by the IPCC, is a hoax.

There's a nice half dozen statements; surely something among them would offend U.K. police  and get me a visit, were I to post them in that formerly great land.  And I imagine I've advertently violated one E.U. regulation or other.  I certainly hope so, and hope someone in the U.K. and E.U. stumble across them today.

The United States of America were founded on the principle "that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights," and that governments exist only to protect these.  If governments fail in that and become destructive of these rights, then they should be abolished and replaced.  This is a fundamental principle, applicable to all times, people, and places, and the American Revolution first instantiated it.  Every human being who loves liberty and abhors tyranny should celebrate this 249th anniversary today.

Here is an excellent short piece by the eminent historian Wilfred McClay on the meaning and origins of the ideas in the Declaration of Independence.

Update 6 July 2025: Here's another short piece from Lloyd Billingsley on American independence from the U.N. and its ilk.  Very good!

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 15:26 0 comments

Three cheers for President Trump, the USAF, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the IDF!  Thanks to them, Iran no longer has a nuclear program.  This is one of the happiest developments in international affairs since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and a foreign policy triumph for America and Israel.  The neutering of Iran's military establishment and destruction of their atomic bomb program is one of the most promising advances for peace in a long time.

Some pro-Iran weirdos, such as the silly commentator Tucker Carlson, have tried to argue there is no evidence Iran had a nuclear weapons program, and that Iran was simply trying to develop civilian nuclear power.  It's impossible to take such arguments seriously.  First, Iran could simply have bought reactors, say, from Russia.  Second, if Iran simply had been developing civilian energy, there would have been no need to bury its programs in underground bunkers and block the IAEA from observing.  Third, even the Iranians admit they enriched uranium to at least 60%.  Power reactors require enrichment to 3-4%, 5% tops.  Only bombs require the highly enriched uranium Iran was developing.  

Iran has been the leading state sponsor of terrorism, arming and funding Hezbollah, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, the Polisario Front in Morocco,  Muqtada Al-Sadr's Mahdi Army, and many others.  Iran is behind numerous terror attacks, such as bombing of the Israeli embassy in Argentina in 1992 and 1994 bombing of the Buenos Aires Jewish Center, the October 7 massacres in Israel, numerous attacks on American military personnel, and attempted assassinations in the United States, including a plot against President Trump.  There is no reason why such a regime should be tolerated.  The destruction of the Iranian military leadership was warranted and justified, and so was destroying their atomic weapons program.

The bombing of Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan was certainly justified by libertarian principles.  A homicidal theocracy that exports murder around the world must not have nuclear weapons, and it is perfectly fine to bomb their program, and them, to oblivion.  This is particularly so since they were offered the opportunity to give it up peacefully, and instead adopt trade with the civilized, developed world to mutual benefit.  Since they refused, they have been crushed, justifiably.

It is heartening to finally see a Western leader or two stand up for civilization.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 16:52 0 comments