Unforeseen Contingencies

American politics...  Unforeseen Contingencies is named for the event that is not only not expected in a probabilistic sense, but not even imagined.  In that sense, what we at Unforeseen Contingencies are observing does not really qualify as an unforeseen contingency for us, but for many it is.

First, there was the collapse of corrupt pedophile Joe Brandon during the debate, where his senility was revealed publicly for all to see.  Next, there was the attempted murder of Donald Trump by the Feds.  (I explain below.)  And now there's the Republican Convention, a political nominating convention unlike anything we have seen in a while: a event that overflows with principle and hope.

The debate: Biden is senile. It was obvious during the 2020 campaign that Joe Brandon was failing.  He has continually degenerated since then, and it is available for anyone to see.  Just see his 2016 convention address, or this  2014 clip of his unbelievable fitness (he nearly beats Barack Obama in a footrace around the White House!) (Um, er...  /s)  Biden's senility is now a matter of public record.  Bigwig Democrats are now admitting it.

Attempted murder of President Trump: Had it been successful, the attempt on the life of Mr. Trump would have plunged the Republican Convention into chaos and strengthened Joe Brandon's position.  But not only did the attempt fail, Mr. Trump rallied the crowd with a triumphant "Fight" and "USA!" chant.  Americans are hungry for a vision of courage, strength, and defiance against evil.  This was heroic moment of Trump's part, and iconic.    It resonates around the world.

The convention: There is much that could be said.  Suffice it to say that when the head of the Teamsters, and a black Democrat address a Republican convention because this is where normal Americans are welcome, there is a seed change occurring in American politics.  When renowned GOPe leader Mitch McConnell is booed at the Republican national convention, there is a seed change occurring in American politics.  (Don't miss the short speech by black Democrat Madeline Brame.  It will be six minutes well spent.)  The convention seems to be a celebration of hope and renewal of important values (entirely unlike the phony "hope and change" marxism of Barack Obama).

UC's bottom line is that we are potentially on the verge of a reversal of the destruction of Western civilization and the imposition of the twin scourges of statism and cultural marxism.  Certainly the battle is being fought.  And people appear to be rallying to the example set by Trump.  For many, this is an unforeseen contingency.  But whether it is anticipated or not, it is a very hopeful thing.

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Now, what's this about the Feds trying to assassinate Trump?  Well, if the things reported in the MSM are true:

1. The Secret Service (SS) decided not to control the most obvious position overlooking the venue.  Cheatle's excuse that the roof had a slope and thus was too dangerous to post anyone is idiotic and obviously false.  The murderer's body did not roll off the roof once he was eliminated.  The snipers who ultimately killed the assassin were posted on a much steeper roof.  And roofers regularly put shingles on roofs that are far  steeper, without plummeting to the ground.

2. The police who were stationed in the building observed and photographed the sniper 30 minutes before the  shooting.  He was using a range finder, a device that measures the distance to a target.  They noticed he had a backpack.  Yet he was not stopped and searched.  

3. Numerous people in the crowd noticed the assassin crawling on the roof and saw that he had a gun.  They videoed him and shouted and pointed him out to the SS.  This was more than a minute before the shooting.

4. A law enforcement officer (LEO) climbed the ladder the murderer had set, to see what he was doing.  The murderer pointed his rifle at the LEO, who retreated.

5. All of this was observed by LEO snipers on another, steeper rooftop, through their riflescopes and spotting scopes.  With these scopes you can read the brand name on someone's jeans at 400 yards.  So the LEO snipers knew that they had a man armed with a rifle trying to sneak up on the President.  They allegedly asked for permission to shoot, which was denied.  Unh... I lived in Pennsylvania for a year, and before I went I studied PA's self defense law.  I could have legally shot the murderer when he was crawling  with a weapon.  When he pointed it at the LEO, the case for shooting him was airtight.  And then he pointed it at the President.  Yet they didn't shoot him.

6. The murderer fired eight rounds at Trump, murdering Corey Comperatore and wounding three others, including the President.  The shots took 4-5 seconds.  The LEO snipers (SS?) waited that long to respond and kill the assassin, even though they had rifles mounted on tripods aimed at him.  The only reasonable conclusion is that they allowed him to touch off eight rounds.  This morning I ran an experiment with a shot timer.  In less than four seconds I can pick up a firearm and put two rounds into the A zone of two targets.  And I'm not a trained professional, just a an amateur enthusiast.  

7. Trump's security detail included women who are clearly out-of-shape and untrained.  His regular bodyguards had been diverted to cover a speech by Jill Biden.  He was given incompetent idiots who didn't know what to do; the fat one couldn't even figure out how to holster her pistol.

8. Local police were locked out of the venue and had to ram a gate with a police cruiser to get in, once trouble developed.  The SS is blaming local authorities for security lapses, an obviously ridiculous position.

This is not an exhaustive list (yes, there's more), but the only reasonable conclusion I can draw is that the Feds allowed the murderer to shoot at Trump.  They had many opportunities to stop him prior to him opening fire, and no legal restrictions that might have stopped them.  They observed him preparing to shoot, what with his range finding and his crawling around with a rifle and pointing at the LEO.  Once he started firing they allowed him to get off eight rounds, and only then did they kill him.  One would have to be stupid, addled by ideology, to think this is just a bunch of mistakes.  The same people who lied to FISA courts, bugged Trump Tower, promoted the Russian disinformation dossier, lied and claimed Hunter's laptop was simply Russian disinformation, have now tried to kill Donald Trump.  That's the obvious conclusion from the points above.

**  **  **

And these are in rough times, and they will get rougher.  God willing, reason and freedom will triumph.  And there's hope.  Unforeseen contingencies will prevail!

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 00:09 0 comments

Happy American Independence Day!  As is my usual practice, I have spent the morning rereading the Declaration of Independence and various meditations on it.  Today Law and Liberty had two that are particularly good.  250 Years of Jeffersonian Constitutionalism, by my friend Hans Eicholz, is a deep and careful analysis of Jefferson's "Summary View of the Rights of British America" and its implications for the Constitution as well as the Declaration.  It is worthwhile.

The second is Professor Paul Seaton's The Declaration's Timely Teaching on Immigration.  Seaton notes how the Declaration carefully distinguishes between the natural rights of each individual, a universal principle, and the political rights of a particular people to protect and defend their political order.  The Declaration applies this to immigration by noting George III had blocked laws facilitating immigration and naturalization.  Today our Federal government instead blocks these laws to facilitate mass invasion by unvetted, unaccountable, often hostile foreigners who are not to be naturalized.  Seaton points out how the Founders' understanding offers a rational alternative to bad ideas from leftists and national conservatives.  

Related to this theme, Scott Johnson has posted on the Powerline blog an excerpt from Abraham Lincoln's speech of 10 July 1858, in his annual "The Eternal Meaning of Independence Day" post, in which Lincoln makes clear that it is the moral principle of equal individual rights in the Declaration that makes America what it is and the binds Americans together, and also that this is a universal principle that can and ought to connect all men.  In The Eternal Meaning of Independence Day (2) Johnson quotes Calvin Coolidge on the Declaration.  An excerpt: 

If all men are created equal, that is final. If they are endowed with inalienable rights, that is final. If governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed, that is final. No advance, no progress can be made beyond these propositions. If anyone wishes to deny their truth or their soundness, the only direction in which he can proceed historically is not forward, but backward toward the time when there was no equality, no rights of the individual, no rule of the people. 

Finally, in the last letter he ever wrote in his life, the great Thomas Jefferson reflected on the Declaration and its importance: May it be to the world, what I believe it will be, (to some parts sooner, to others later, but finally to all,) the signal of arousing men to burst the chains under which monkish ignorance and superstition had persuaded them to bind themselves, and to assume the blessings and security of self-government. That form which we have substituted, restores the free right to the unbounded exercise of reason and freedom of opinion.

Hillsdale College has made a very nice short film dramatizing this, Last Days of a Revolutionary.

American Independence Day -- all people, everywhere, who love liberty, should study it, celebrate it, and live it.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 14:45 0 comments

 Of late I've been in touch with people in several lines of work who have expressed horror at what is happening in their fields.  Among these are instructors at medical schools and military officers.  In each case the story they tell is chilling: the imposition of insane woke ideology, demands of conformity to obviously harmful things, quotas for various identities resulting in incompetent people being promoted, and competent people leaving.

The immediate effects are obvious -- medicine and military are life-and-death professions.  An incompetent person can get a lot of people hurt or killed.  But there's another matter perhaps less obvious.  Driving competent people out of a profession results in a loss of knowledge that can't be replaced.  Even if DEI programs are suddenly ended after a few years and people entering these professions selected only for merit and competence, there will be a loss of people and knowledge, and training the next generation to previous high pre-DEI standards won't be possible.  Knowledge is lost and skills decay.  The longer DEI nonsense is pursued, the greater the loss and the worse the problem.  It will become increasingly difficult to recover. We will retrogress.

This is akin to a problem economist John Cochrane has identified with so-called degrowth and the environmental anti-technological movement.  If such a movement gets its way, it might well lock us into a downward spiral of poverty we cannot escape.  Resources have become increasingly abundant because our advances in knowledge and thus technology have allowed us to turn what were once worthless submarginal deposits and stocks into valuable sources.  Real prices of resources systematically fall.  But these deposits are often not physically accessible with older technology, and should we stop or reverse technological advance, we no longer have the more easily accessed resources of the past, trapping humanity in resource-scarce poverty.

This is remarkably dangerous.  Advocates of DEI, degrowth, the war on reliable energy (i.e. nuclear, fossil fuels, and hydro power) are effectively working for the suicide of the West.  In every way the "woke" agenda is destructive.  It must be reversed at all cost.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 19:56 0 comments

In the modern era, it is most likely that the two most warlike peoples in the world were the Germans and the Japanese.  Germany was hell-bent on war; for example, Gustav Schmoller, Adolph Wagner, and Merings (first name?) edited a volume published in 1900 that advocated Germany build a massive navy and rule South America.  Germany was the instigator of WWI, and Germany and Japan together started WWII.  Both countries built militaristic totalitarian regimes that plunged the world into war.  But militaristic no longer describes them; now they are arguably the most pacifistic nations in the world.  What happened?

In the Second World War both nations were utterly crushed.  They were defeated in battle, heavily bombed, and completely occupied.  They surrendered unconditionally to avoid total annihilation.  The result?  Peace!  And two previously warlike nations that subsequently became anti-war.  Harry S. Truman, Curtis LeMay, Dwight David Eisenhower, Winston Churchill, and the Allied forces should have received the Nobel Peace Prize for what they accomplished, but unfortunately did not.

Those who fight to crush aggressors and predators make peace, freedom, and civilization possible, and they should be recognized for their contributions.  Violence demonstrably begets peace, as the utter crushing of Germany and Japan show.  In this spirit, we at Unforeseen Contingencies propose that the Nobel Peace Prize for 2024 be awarded to Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF.  It is to be hoped, for the sake of the Palestinian people, that their spirit be so utterly crushed that, like the Germans and Japanese post-World War Two, they completely foreswear war and terror against Israel, and commit to living in peace and being as productive as the Germans and Japanese.  If this happens, the credit will go to Netanyahu and the IDF, for bringing peace.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 22:38 0 comments

 This is the single best statement I've read on the conflict that has been forced on Israel.  An Israeli author, Dina Rubina, was invited to participate in an online discussion of her books.  But having accepted the invitation, she then found herself being asked to explain her position on the conflict.

She did, and it is magnificent.

The critics of Israel are vile.  The critics of Israel's just war to destroy Hamas are vile.  And Ms. Rubina has given them the perfect response.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 21:44 0 comments

 Unforeseen Contingencies is not dead, we're just dormant.

The entire staff here at UC has been extremely busy, too busy to post until now, but we have a bit of a breather and will get in a few words.  Let's do in outline form for conciseness, since there's so much that has gone on and so much to say.

1. Our predictions for 2024 look very good so far.  Mr. Trump is the obvious Republican candidate and the Democrats are wedded to Mr. Brandon Biden.  And Mr. Trump is well out in front in the polls, which historically have grossly underestimated his support.

2. Israel should pound Hamas to smithereens.  The Israelis need to kill the entire leadership of Hamas, and as many of their soldiers as they can.  In the years running up to World War II, the two most warlike peoples in the world were the Germans and the Japanese.  After WWII these became the most pacifistic people in the world.  This benefitted them, as they became among the wealthiest people in the world with particularly functional societies.  I wish this success for the so-called palestinians... which means they must be utterly crushed and their dreams of conquest destroyed.  Then, and only then, will they be able to rise to a hopeful future.

3. The next U.S. president, who will not be Joe Brandon Biden, must start fixing America, first of all by wiping out the administrative state.  It must be wiped out.  The Section F strategy, which allows a President to convert as much as half of the bureaucracy to appointed positions, from which they could be immediately fired, would be a great start.  So too would be a reconsideration of the Chevron doctrine, the SCOTUS case that in essence defaults to "whatever the bureaucracy says, goes."  And it appears Chevron will be reversed before the election, so POTUS piling on with Section F is certainly called for.  The administrative state is dictatorial and works for its own power.  It must be destroyed.

4.  A second fix for the next president is crushing the communists who have taken over education in America.  Education is crucial, as it prepares the next generation that will run the world.  They must understand that free people, engaged in free enterprise and free trade, are necessary for a successful society, but also an end in themselves.  So to further this, the next president must insist that every university and college receiving federal funds obey the Constitution and federal law.*  This means removing all pro-Hamas groups, encampments, administrators, professors, and students, and doing the same with marxists, including cultural marxists. All such promotion of violence and exterminationist doctrines violate the inalienable rights the Constitution is established to protect.  The university system must be defunded.  In addition, the federal government must zealously defend the rights of students and faculty who are Jewish, or libertarian, or conservative, and anyone else who is outside the academic-industrial-complex lockstep.

5. May the Iranians soon be liberated from the mullahs.  Dead mullahs and free Iranians would be a hopeful combination.

And after that we can start thinking about the Chinese and Russians.  They need to be freed, too.

Happy Hayek's birthday!

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*The irony is that there appears to be only one college not receiving federal funds, and it is the only one meeting the standard recipients should meet.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 19:26 2 comments

 It's that time of year... Unforeseen Contingencies reveals "our" forecasts and prognostications for the new year!

We've been lax in getting these up the last few years; the staff of the Forecasting and Prediction desk have been goofing off, ever since being discombobulated by the 2020 election shenanigans.  While their claim that when authorities behave chaotically it's too hard to make conditional predictions has some merit, that doesn't get them out of work.  We've been able to get the desk up and running again (appropriate application of electrical shocks and a small horse whip work wonders) (mild electrical shocks).  Thus the Official Unforeseen Contingencies Predictions for 2024!

1. Israel will conquer all of Gaza and destroy Hamas.  

OK, the desk is starting up gradually with an easy one.  It could have been "the sun will raise on January 1," so let's not complain.  They are trying.

Israel must destroy Hamas.  Hamas has vowed more and bigger October 7 attacks.  Israelis must exterminate Hamas entirely.  For a "hit" on this prediction it's sufficient that Israel completely conquer Gaza.  Certainly some Hamas members will escape (especially the billionaire leaders) and claim the organization lives, but it will cease to exist as a terrorist army.

Now the predictions become difficult.  As "the desk" points out, there is much chaos in the world.  But here goes...

2. Donald Trump will receive the Republican nomination for President and will be on the ballot in all fifty states.

There are two criteria to be met here for a hit.  It is possible that Mr. Trump will not be the nominee, but if so that will be owing to some sort of skullduggery that will outrage Republican voters.  If the skullduggery is perpetrated by the administrative state or Democrats, and the GOPe refuses to go to war* over it, Republican voters will desert the GOPe.  It will be even worse if the GOPe perpetrates it.

I should add that I'm not sure Donald Trump would make the best president among the candidates -- DeSantis and Ramaswamy both have potential.  None of the three are perfect, but all three defend individual liberty and all three oppose the administrative state and think it's a menace to America and liberty.  Obviously Nikki Haley and Chris Christie utterly fail on both counts.

3. The Democrats will sweep the 2024 elections, taking Presidency, House, and Senate.

Ugh. This will be a disaster for America and the world.  But here's the unpleasant truth: the GOP has done next to nothing to address mass mailing of ballots, ballot harvesting, opaque tabulation practices, and other fraud.  The Dems excelled at these in 2020 and have four years to perfect their operations.  The Biden administration has mobilized the Federal bureaucracy to "get out the vote," and they've imported millions of illegals, a number of whom will vote (illegally).  We have no serious checks on the integrity of voting; there will be massive cheating.  That brings us to our next prediction...

4. Massive fraud in the 2024 elections.  

It's hard the specify "hit" criteria here, because fraud is by nature secret, and when it is charged, it's contested.  But it was plenty evident in 2020 for those not in denial, and it will be more obvious in 2024.  I suppose I must add, the fraud will be perpetrated by Democrats.  There might even be a small potatoes incident of Republican fraud staged, just to distract the confused.

5. Ukraine will not be conquered by Russia.  The war will continue up through the end of 2024.

American news writers and commentators  have recently been suggesting Ukraine will be defeated soon.  This is nonsense, spun by people abroad who work out in their heads how everything will go, based on no understanding of the issues and no evidence.  Ukrainians are unwilling to be exterminated and unwilling to submit to the Russian yoke.  Russia still has much blood to lose.  Hence the war will continue.

6. Joe Biden will be the Democrat nominee for President.  

We're going out on a limb here, since his dementia and declining health is obvious.  But the willingness of the feds, the Dems, and the MSM to lie about the obvious, and the gullibility/willingness to be deceived of the Dem voters trumps this.  I sometimes joke that he could pass away and they'd still run him, they could just prop him up and play recordings and claim he's speaking, à la Andropov or Chernenko.  Regardless, I think Brandon will run again.

7. Israel goes to war with Hezbollah (and wins).

I don't mean fighting of the sort we're seeing now.  Hezbollah is committed to the complete destruction of Israel, just as Hamas was.  Hezbollah has far more firepower than Hamas, and Israel must deal with this existential threat.  Sooner, before Hezbollah can unleash its full power in a coordinated attack, is better than later.  I think the Israelis are realizing this.

Hopefully the Iranian mullahs are in danger too.

Next, something new for Unforeseen Contingencies... our Conditional Predictions!

Conditional on 2 being true and 3 false with respect to the presidential elections...

8. Donald Trump wins.  Massive riots and rebellion by federal administrative agencies follow.  And that will just be the beginning of the fun.  Think attacks by China, Russia, and Iran, including by the operatives they've sent in across our open borders.

9. Whitmer for President.  Biden does not run (6 is false), withdrawing for health or similar reasons.  Gretchen Whitmer will step in and run.  Why Whitmer and not Gavin Newsom?  Newsom seems to really want to run the show.  The people running the presidential administration will not want to give up power, hence they'll prefer a team player who will be subservient.  That describes Whitmer to a T.  She can pose as a moderate and as a woman she'll appeal to fans of identity politics.  It will be Witchmer 2024.  (All the talk of Michelle "Mike" Obama is just fantasy football politics.

Back to unconditioned predictions:

10. The discovery of extraterrestrial life will be officially announced.  This is no longer a "wild card" prediction.  Bet on it!

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*Figuratively.  Calm down, feds.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 19:56 2 comments