Saturday, December 30, 2023

Predictions 2024!

 It's that time of year... Unforeseen Contingencies reveals "our" forecasts and prognostications for the new year!

We've been lax in getting these up the last few years; the staff of the Forecasting and Prediction desk have been goofing off, ever since being discombobulated by the 2020 election shenanigans.  While their claim that when authorities behave chaotically it's too hard to make conditional predictions has some merit, that doesn't get them out of work.  We've been able to get the desk up and running again (appropriate application of electrical shocks and a small horse whip work wonders) (mild electrical shocks).  Thus the Official Unforeseen Contingencies Predictions for 2024!

1. Israel will conquer all of Gaza and destroy Hamas.  

OK, the desk is starting up gradually with an easy one.  It could have been "the sun will raise on January 1," so let's not complain.  They are trying.

Israel must destroy Hamas.  Hamas has vowed more and bigger October 7 attacks.  Israelis must exterminate Hamas entirely.  For a "hit" on this prediction it's sufficient that Israel completely conquer Gaza.  Certainly some Hamas members will escape (especially the billionaire leaders) and claim the organization lives, but it will cease to exist as a terrorist army.

Now the predictions become difficult.  As "the desk" points out, there is much chaos in the world.  But here goes...

2. Donald Trump will receive the Republican nomination for President and will be on the ballot in all fifty states.

There are two criteria to be met here for a hit.  It is possible that Mr. Trump will not be the nominee, but if so that will be owing to some sort of skullduggery that will outrage Republican voters.  If the skullduggery is perpetrated by the administrative state or Democrats, and the GOPe refuses to go to war* over it, Republican voters will desert the GOPe.  It will be even worse if the GOPe perpetrates it.

I should add that I'm not sure Donald Trump would make the best president among the candidates -- DeSantis and Ramaswamy both have potential.  None of the three are perfect, but all three defend individual liberty and all three oppose the administrative state and think it's a menace to America and liberty.  Obviously Nikki Haley and Chris Christie utterly fail on both counts.

3. The Democrats will sweep the 2024 elections, taking Presidency, House, and Senate.

Ugh. This will be a disaster for America and the world.  But here's the unpleasant truth: the GOP has done next to nothing to address mass mailing of ballots, ballot harvesting, opaque tabulation practices, and other fraud.  The Dems excelled at these in 2020 and have four years to perfect their operations.  The Biden administration has mobilized the Federal bureaucracy to "get out the vote," and they've imported millions of illegals, a number of whom will vote (illegally).  We have no serious checks on the integrity of voting; there will be massive cheating.  That brings us to our next prediction...

4. Massive fraud in the 2024 elections.  

It's hard the specify "hit" criteria here, because fraud is by nature secret, and when it is charged, it's contested.  But it was plenty evident in 2020 for those not in denial, and it will be more obvious in 2024.  I suppose I must add, the fraud will be perpetrated by Democrats.  There might even be a small potatoes incident of Republican fraud staged, just to distract the confused.

5. Ukraine will not be conquered by Russia.  The war will continue up through the end of 2024.

American news writers and commentators  have recently been suggesting Ukraine will be defeated soon.  This is nonsense, spun by people abroad who work out in their heads how everything will go, based on no understanding of the issues and no evidence.  Ukrainians are unwilling to be exterminated and unwilling to submit to the Russian yoke.  Russia still has much blood to lose.  Hence the war will continue.

6. Joe Biden will be the Democrat nominee for President.  

We're going out on a limb here, since his dementia and declining health is obvious.  But the willingness of the feds, the Dems, and the MSM to lie about the obvious, and the gullibility/willingness to be deceived of the Dem voters trumps this.  I sometimes joke that he could pass away and they'd still run him, they could just prop him up and play recordings and claim he's speaking, à la Andropov or Chernenko.  Regardless, I think Brandon will run again.

7. Israel goes to war with Hezbollah (and wins).

I don't mean fighting of the sort we're seeing now.  Hezbollah is committed to the complete destruction of Israel, just as Hamas was.  Hezbollah has far more firepower than Hamas, and Israel must deal with this existential threat.  Sooner, before Hezbollah can unleash its full power in a coordinated attack, is better than later.  I think the Israelis are realizing this.

Hopefully the Iranian mullahs are in danger too.

Next, something new for Unforeseen Contingencies... our Conditional Predictions!

Conditional on 2 being true and 3 false with respect to the presidential elections...

8. Donald Trump wins.  Massive riots and rebellion by federal administrative agencies follow.  And that will just be the beginning of the fun.  Think attacks by China, Russia, and Iran, including by the operatives they've sent in across our open borders.

9. Whitmer for President.  Biden does not run (6 is false), withdrawing for health or similar reasons.  Gretchen Whitmer will step in and run.  Why Whitmer and not Gavin Newsom?  Newsom seems to really want to run the show.  The people running the presidential administration will not want to give up power, hence they'll prefer a team player who will be subservient.  That describes Whitmer to a T.  She can pose as a moderate and as a woman she'll appeal to fans of identity politics.  It will be Witchmer 2024.  (All the talk of Michelle "Mike" Obama is just fantasy football politics.

Back to unconditioned predictions:

10. The discovery of extraterrestrial life will be officially announced.  This is no longer a "wild card" prediction.  Bet on it!


*Figuratively.  Calm down, feds.

Sunday, November 12, 2023

Israel and Civilization vs. the Final Solutionists

Unforeseen Contingencies has always been a set of notes written -- mostly, but not entirely, by Chief Blogger Charles N. Steele -- primarily for the benefit of Chief Blogger Charles N. Steele.  This post is no different.  Maybe someday "we'll" go public (and viral) (the rest of the Unforeseen Contingencies staff keeps urging this), but for now this remains "our" sandbox for exploring ideas with ourselves.  Hence this post.

Benjamin Netanyahu apparently has declared that Israel will not stop fighting until all of Hamas is either killed or has surrendered.  He has also apparently said that the Fatah "Palestinian"* Authority will not govern post-war Gaza.  I hope and pray both are true and that they come to pass.  Hamas and its clones, e.g. "Palestinian" Islamic Jihad, are final solutionists who work for the elimination of Israel, the murder of all Jews, and establishment of a global Islamic state.  They stand for the most brutal oppression, and must themselves be completely exterminated if there is to be freedom and peace.  That should be obvious.

But what about the noncombatant "Palestinians?"  Overwhelmingly they have supported the "river to the sea" extermination of Israel.  Arab muslims of the area who have opposed this and worked against Hamas and Fatah excepted, the "Palestinians" have supported the goal of exterminating Israelis and Jews.  Any sympathy for them is misplaced.  The proper way to deal with them is to do whatever is necessary to crush their spirits.  They should be like Germans and Japanese in 1945, so utterly crushed that they abandon their murderous ways.  Then, and only then, can there be peace.  And, like the Germans and Japanese of 1945, when they come to that realization, that their dreams of dominance are destroyed and they face annihilation unless they surrender, then there is great hope for them.  Only then.

One would think these basic lessons of history would be obvious, but they are not.  Regardless, they are true.

What of the "protestors" around the world who clamor for "Free 'Palestine?'"  They are no different from Nazis who marched prior to Kristallnacht, ginning themselves up for the first step in final solutionism. The leftist rabble stands intersectionality -- they are pro-transgender anti-racist pro-socialist pro-green anti-Israel anti-white anti-Jew -- in the final analysis, anti-reason and anti-life. They differ from Nazis only in their internationalism.

I don't see how their views can be accommodated in a free society.  Israeli women are raped until their pelvises break.  Israeli babies are murdered in their cribs and decapitated.  Israeli family members are tied up and slowly dismembered in front of each other.   A non-Jewish (Thai) Israeli farm worker is gutshot and then decapitated alive.  In response, the "Free 'Palestine'" rioters scream for the eradication of Jews "from the river to the sea."  They are no different from genuine Nazis, and should be treated as such.

We live in very dark times.  Some of our countrymen are possessed by the darkest evil.

We did not ask for this.  But since it's given to us, let us do what is right.  B'ezras Hashem.


* The words "Palestinian" and "Palestine," should usually be in "scare quotes," which really mean "so-called."  There was never a country called "Palestine" nor a nationality or people called "Palestinian."  The word Palestine, properly used, refers to a geographic region, similar to "Sahel" or "Great Plains."  In all political uses it should be "Palestinian," the shortened version of "so-called Palestinian."

Sunday, October 29, 2023

Quick note: Israel must win!

I've been putting off posting anything.  I want to write a piece about the wonderful recent running of the Le Grizz 50 Mile Ultramarathon, but I also want to comment on the horrible crimes that were inflicted on Israelis and what I think would be a righteous response.  I would prefer to emphasize the positive ultrarunning theme, but the spiraling anti-Jewish hatred around the world is makes it difficult to focus on nicer things.  Here's an example: college students at American universities, so called "activists," are threatening the lives of Jews.  These final solutionists openly advocate pogroms and murder.  And it's not just talk.  For example, advocates of "Palestine" tried to attack Jewish students at Cooper Union in NYC. Law enforcement, prosecutors, and college administrators sit idly by.  It's horrific, a world wide version of Hitler's Kristallnacht.  

It's clear that Israel must utterly destroy Hamas.  Hamas' goals is the complete elimination of all Jews, by torture and death.  Hamas and its supporters must be exterminated; there's no room in a civilized world for murderers.  Israel needs to conquer Gaza and utterly wipe out Hamas and associated Islamists.  After that, the Iranian mullahs and Hezbollah.

Here in America, and also in Europe, Islamists and their leftist fellow travelers should be crushed.  They propose murder, and there can be no rational discussion with advocates of murder.

Those unable to think might object "aren't you also advocating the same thing?"  

No!  There's enormous difference between those who advocate murder, an evil, and those who advocate righteous violence against murderers.  Morals are not arbitrary.  The post-modern denial of objective good and evil is nihilist nonsense.

I'll post more on this soon.

Thursday, October 19, 2023

Upcoming: Le Grizz 2023! and comments on the situation facing Israel and the free world

 Quick note: This past Saturday I completed my 22nd Le Grizz 50 Mile Run in Montana's Flathead Valley.  It's high time I posted a race report, and one is upcoming, with photos.

Also upcoming, my comments on Israel's war against Hamas and why it's a war in defense of civilization against primitive, anti-human savagery.  Israel fights for all who believe in reason and liberty.

Photo: On the course, with crew in background.

Saturday, October 07, 2023

Unforeseen Contingencies comments: Russia, Iran, and China and the stupidity of American Conservatives

Early this morning Hamas launched a hot war on Israel, with thousands of rockets targeting civilians and assaults by groups of terrorists.  It's worth remembering that Hamas is a client organization of Iran.  It's also worth remembering that Iran is a client of Russia.  The JPCOA was endorsed by Russia, Russia expressed dismay when President Trump jettisoned it, and in its ongoing efforts to renew the JPCOA, the Biden administration has relied on Russia's Foreign Ministry to negotiate with Iran.  It's also worth recalling that for sometime -- prior to Russia's launch of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 -- the Chinese, Russian, and Iranian navies engaged in three-way joint training maneuvers.

Unforeseen Contingencies has the "guest post" below from Vladimir Putin because it is illustrative and explanatory of what is occurring.  The Russian government convened a congress of sympathetic Latin American legislators and brought them to Moscow.  In the keynote address Putin praises Marxists Salvador Allende, Che Guevara, and especially Fidel Castro as revolutionaries for social justice, pledges that Russia will continue their struggle, and as evidence cites recent Russian investments in Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Bolivia.  He praises Hugo Chavez' socialist Bolivarian Alliance, refers to using the BRIC alliance to end the use of the U.S. dollar as the international currency, and affirms Russia's ongoing interest in Russian and Soviet emigres (one of his excuses for invading Ukraine, as well as threats against the Baltics).

Putin couldn't be clearer that there's no real break between Soviet and current Russian foreign policy.  Three days ago I mentioned Putin's speech to a friend whose wife is Haitian.  His response: "Oh, so now it makes sense what the in-laws were just telling me.  They said members of the Wagner Group have recently surfaced in Haiti, and someone is organizing new groups asking for Russian intervention, similar to what we've seen in Cameroon and the Central African Republic."

The "stupidity of American conservatives" is that today so many of them cannot see what is right in front of their faces.  Under Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, the foreign policy establishment pursued a policy of "Reset" (or "Overcharge") with Russia.  The American foreign policy establishment negotiated the JPCOA, which empowered Iran and Russia.  Obama accidentally revealed on a hot mic that his tough talk against Russia was for domestic consumption, and that Putin should ignore it. Hillary Clinton's State Department signed off on the Uranium One deal, as coincidentally the Clinton Foundation received hundreds of millions in donations from parties connected to the deal.  Meanwhile, Hunter Biden was receiving millions from Mykola Zlochevsky's Burisma Holdings; Zlochevsky was an official in Victor Yanukovych's Russian puppet government.  Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign paid Russian intelligence for a fake dossier the Russians concocted on Trump.  In the subsequent witch hunts Carter Page, a CIA asset against Russia, was successfully framed as a Russian agent.  One would suppose that having witnessed all this, the "America First" conservatives would put two and two together and understand that Putin is an enemy and is closely connected with the Washington DC establishment and Democrat Party.  

But no, they are incapable of this apparently.  Instead they uncritically absorb Kremlin lines such as that America and NATO staged a coup in Ukraine, that America and NATO forced Putin to invade Ukraine, that Ukraine is traditional Russian land, that Ukrainians are Nazis, that Putin is on a crusade to save Christianity and Western Civilization, and other  idiocies.  Many assert America could not possibly have any legitimate interest in Ukraine, and it makes no difference at all if a dictatorship invades and crushes a country where people are struggling to build a free society.

We are, I fear, going to hear the same idiocy from the pseudo-America-Firsters with respect to Israel.  "Why should we care" if Islamic terrorists connected with Iran, Russia, and China attempt to exterminate Israel?  In essence, the "America-Firster" position holds that it doesn't matter if the entire world is taken over by hostile forces that oppose freedom; we should just ignore it and mind our own domestic business.  At some point their argument becomes so ridiculous one can only conclude they are not simply mistaken, they are both evil and stupid.  It's the same problem that has infected the left and many libertarians: ideology can turn off one's critical capacities and make and otherwise intelligent person stupid and accepting of evil.  We are now seeing waves of it.

I said little about China, but the C's in BRIC are participating in all these international intrigues, including infiltrating America, Latin and North.

Tuesday, October 03, 2023

Guest Post: Vladimir Putin on Russian-Latin American Relations

Unforeseen Contingencies is pleased to present another guest post from Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation.  Our comments will follow later.  From the Russian Federation Kremlin website (their translation):

 Opening of the Russia-Latin America Parliamentary Conference

Vladimir Putin spoke at the opening of the Russia-Latin America International Parliamentary Conference Moscow hosts from September 29 to October 2.

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Ladies and gentlemen, friends.

I would like to sincerely welcome all the participants of the Russia-Latin America International Parliamentary Conference.

This conference, initiated by the leaders of the Russian State Duma, has brought together representatives of legislative bodies and leaders of political parties, heads of public organisations, experts and diplomats from most Latin American countries.

A group of high-ranking legislators from Latin America, the people who represent their constituents and who are called upon to serve their interests, has arrived in Moscow. This again confirms that their nations are willing to develop a comprehensive mutually beneficial partnership with Russia. We are convinced that promoting direct dialogue between parliaments will open up opportunities for deepening our cooperation and expanding it through new areas of joint activity.

The State Duma speaker informed me about the conference’s large and very busy programme yesterday. I am sure you will have a rewarding time at the sessions and round tables discussing the role of parliamentary diplomacy in strengthening cooperation between Russia and Latin American countries across the board: in politics and security, as well as socioeconomic and humanitarian spheres.

Let me note that Russia’s and Latin America’s views on international issues traditionally have a lot in common. Latin Americans have always strived for independence, and the history of your continent is full of the most notable examples.

This happened during the period of struggle against colonialism during the time of the famous Simon Bolivar, who became a symbol of freedom not only for Latin America, but perhaps for the entire world and for all humanity. This also happened in the second half of the last century, when the continent gave the world such selfless fighters for justice and social equality as Salvador Allende, Ernesto Che Guevara, and Fidel Castro.


I have to say that this applause is appropriate, as they say; it is applause that speaks to the role of those people whom I have just named. I remember my meetings with Fidel Castro, there were several of them. That was a rock, you know? That was a man who thought about people every second, and not only about the Cubans: he thought about all of Latin America, he thought about all the people on planet Earth. And indeed, his entire being was imbued with concern for achieving the common good and justice. He had a unique personality. These are the kind of people Latin America gives birth to.

It would not be an exaggeration to say that even today Latin American countries are showing a pattern in the success of the progressive process of forming a multipolar system of international relations based on equality, justice, respect for international law and each other’s legitimate interests.

In this new polycentric architecture, countries of Latin America, that have enormous economic potential and human resources and want to pursue a sovereign, independent foreign policy, will have a leading role in the world. There is no doubt about it.

Russia sincerely wishes the countries of the Latin American region to develop progressively and dynamically and strengthen their positions in the world economy and politics. We have always advocated for Latin America, in its unity and diversity, to be strong, independent and successful.

In order to achieve this, we are ready to build bilateral relations as well as work closely with integrational associations of Latin America, such as the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America, and the Southern Common Market. In particular, we will help ensure that these associations establish practical ties with the Eurasian Economic Union and compare approaches on current issues of trade policy, tariff regulation, stimulating investment, and technology transfer.

Of course, Russia is happy that there are countries in Latin America, which plan to join BRICS as full members or partners.

You know, departing from the text of my speech, I can say this: we have information and understanding of what is happening in different Latin American countries, while different political forces take different approaches to the associations I mentioned, including to the process of joining BRICS. We know this and we are aware of different trends within different political circles, particularly ahead of various political events inside these countries. However, BRICS is an organisation which is not a military alliance but rather a forum for coordinating approaches and developing mutually acceptable solutions based on sovereignty, independence and respect for one another.

My strong belief is that whatever is taking place within political circles and political parties in the countries which are on the way to joining or have joined or are seeking to join and work with these organisations, including BRICS, no matter what, all political forces will have to factor in people’s sentiments. Voters’ sentiments, in the broad sense of the word, in all Latin American countries add up to the aspiration for freedom and independence. All countries and political parties in Latin America will have to keep this in mind. This means that, of course, we will cooperate strategically, including on the issues which are key on the BRICS agenda.

Why am I speaking about this? The reason is that the BRICS Chairmanship will pass on to Russia soon and I believe we will do the utmost to make sure that the so-called global majority has the sense that they are not simply the majority in terms of the population size of their countries but they are the majority on account of their development prospects.


As for our relations with Latin American countries, I would like to specially mention several things that are of priority importance. These relations are, first of all, friendly, constructive and mutually beneficial, and they develop on the basis of equality and respect for each other’s interests.

Over the previous five years, trade between Russia and Latin America has increased by 25 percent. Russia’s exports have climbed by 130 percent and include goods that are needed by Latin American countries, such as wheat, fertilisers, oil products and many other essential goods. These are our traditional markets. Of course, a faster transition to settlements in national currencies, and the creation of channels for financial and banking cooperation, as well as of new transport and logistics chains – all this facilitates the further development of mutual trade.

As for the financial sphere, we recently hosted the Russia-Africa Summit in St Petersburg, where African leaders said, as if in passing, that the total debt burden on Africa is over a trillion dollars. This is simply impossible to repay, given the level of economic development of these countries.

Why am I saying this? I am saying this to point out that modern financial and credit relations in the world are structured in such a way that they serve exclusively the interests of the so-called “golden billion.” This “golden billion,” more precisely, the leaders of these “golden billion” countries exploit practically all other countries. They abuse their position in terms of technology, information and finances. They have built international financial institutions in such a way and introduce such rules into financial and economic activities that bring practical benefit only to them. I want to emphasise that on the face of it everything looks quite favourable, but in the end all these rules and institutions serve the interests of this “golden billion.” And this is certainly something we need to think about. We are looking into this, including within the organisation I have already mentioned, the BRICS.

I am sure, I know that Latin American integration organisations are also thinking about it and discussing these issues. These credit commitments that have been formulated for many emerging markets, they are no longer regarded as some kind of credit commitments – they are more like levy, some kind of a contribution. It should not be like this. That is why we all must work together to change the rules in this international sphere as well.

Our common asset is a whole range of major mutually beneficial investment and high-tech projects. Let me remind you, for example, that a nuclear research and technology centre is being built in Bolivia with Russian participation, that joint biopharmaceutical enterprises are expanding their activities in Nicaragua and Venezuela, and that a metallurgical plant is being upgraded in Cuba. These are just some examples.

Our friendly attitude towards the countries of the region is also reflected in the fact that we are always ready to come to the aid of Latin Americans and always extend a helping hand and support in overcoming the devastating effects of natural disasters, in the fight against terrorism, extremism, organised crime and drug trafficking.

A high level of co-operation is also maintained with Latin American nations in the humanitarian sphere. The number of countries with which we have established visa-free travel is steadily increasing – it currently includes 27 Latin American countries. This is opening up new opportunities for business, scientific and cultural exchanges and increasing tourism in both directions.

At present, almost 5,000 Latin American students are studying in our country, and their annual quota for tuition-free grants in Russian universities is also increasing this academic year. We also provide professional training for the national law enforcement agencies of Latin American countries.

Russian-Latin American projects in medicine and public health, and biological and epidemiological security are being implemented with good results. During the coronavirus pandemic, our country was among the first to supply Latin America with large shipments of vaccines, test systems, sanitary and hygiene products, and other medical and humanitarian goods.

Friends, I cannot fail to mention that, as we know, there are about 300,000 natives of Russia and the USSR residing in Latin America. Many of them have fully integrated into the life of their new home countries, and some of them continue to live in their Russian communities, preserving their national spiritual culture, language, and identity. And we are grateful – I want to emphasise this and say it to you, parliamentarians, because you represent the interests of your constituents, and I ask that you pass on these words of gratitude to those people with whom you work back in your countries – we are grateful to our Latin American partners, to the citizens of your countries for their attention to the needs and interests of our compatriots, for preserving the memory of the role that Russian people played in the formation of some of the continent’s state institutions, the development of their economies, as well as culture and the arts.

 I want to conclude by emphasising that I believe it is the right time to bolster the interparliamentary format of Russia’s relations with Latin American countries as well as the right thing to do. The support of legislators is indeed needed in many matters concerning the further expansion of multifaceted ties between Russia and Latin America. This is precisely what the current Russia-Latin America International Parliamentary Conference has as its objective.

Allow me to sincerely wish you, the participants and the organisers of these events, successful work and all the best. And of course, I would like to wish you as parliamentarians success in your noble work in your countries.

Thank you very much.

Welcome to Russia!

Friday, September 29, 2023

Principles and Diane Feinstein

 Diane Feinstein passed away today at the age of 90.  She was a serving U.S. Senator, and in the fashion of these times, was already too aged and decrepit to govern her own life, but still an important official in the most powerful government in the world.

Other fashions: when an opponent of leftist ideas dies, it's the custom of leftists to rejoice and say vile things about the person, and when a leftist dies, it's the custom of conservatives to lament the passing.  Being neither a leftist nor a conservative I will do neither.  Diane Feinstein did great harm to liberty and to America.  She was a fierce advocate of disarming Americans, while being armed herself.   If she had her way she would have stolen our firearms and killed those of us who resist.  She voted for massive, invasive, intrusive government.  For years she employed an enemy agent as a chauffeur, and she worked to facilitate enemy activity in America.

Still, I won't rejoice in Diane Feinstein's death; I will simply say that I'm glad she's no longer able to harm us.  It would have been better if she had retired years ago, or better yet, joined the cause of reason and liberty.  But we take what we get.  Diane Feinstein is out of the Senate.  Good riddance.

Photo: Fenix Ammunition has a slightly different take on Sen. Feinstein.  "We" at Unforeseen Contingencies have some on order.

The GOP Debates

 Sept. 27: As I write this, the Republican debate is on!  "Exciting!"

The seven candidates who are debating are, taken as a whole, the choice of 33% of Republican voters.  Donald Trump has the other two-thirds, if any polls are to be believed.  Apparently the candidates are debating which one of them should have the full one-third, and the debate seems an exercise in futility.

There are only two of them who would be suitable as President.  America is being dismantled by the left.  If America and liberty are to be preserved, it will be absolutely necessary to deal harshly with the administrative state and with the left.  The only two candidates on stage who give an inkling of understanding this are Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy.  The others are supporters of the status quo on these essentials, especially with the administrative state (or in Doug Burgum's case, apparently oblivious to such issues). 

It seems likely that Trump will be the nominee, and if he isn't, the Republican Party will have a difficult time assembling voters.  The task of the Democrat Party will be so much easier they might be able to win honestly.  I suspect a non-Trump GOP candidate will draw fewer votes than Trump did in 2016, never mind 2020.  I think a large percentage of Republican voters think the party leadership has contempt for them, and the feeling is mutual.  It's a bit early for predictions, but I suspect a Democrat will "win," by hook or by crook, in 2024.

Hence I'm ignoring the debates.

Sept. 29: This was to be posted two days ago, but it was hung up in drafts.  Here it is, two days late.  The world can now stop holding its breath.

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