Unforeseen Contingencies

 Happy 250th American Independence Day! As is our tradition at Unforeseen Contingencies, here is our annual Fourth of July post.

Two hundred and fifty years ago the greatest political document in human history was adopted. The Declaration proclaimed universal truths of unalienable individual rights -- natural rights, the primacy of rights of the people over powers and claims of governments, and the only legitimate purposes of government. It also expressed practical wisdom, noting that to break existing political bonds reasonably required specific evidences, facts of time and place. It is a brilliant document. Notably, it is not just about America in 1776, it is universal, its contents appropriate for all times and places and people.

"The desire for freedom is so much a part of human nature that politicians and deep thinkers try to call other things 'freedom' in order to sell them. They try to call it 'economic freedom' when the government guarantees you food, shelter, and other basics. Prisons have that kind of 'freedom.' So do Communist countries. People try to escape from both, often at the risk of their lives.

The freedom of America is the freedom to live your own life and take your own chances. The American Revolution was more than a rebellion against England. It was a rebellion against the whole idea that some special anointed could tell everyone else what to do. The Constitution of the United States is pervaded by the conviction that no one is to be trusted with too much power."

~ Thomas Sowell, "The Fourth of July" - 1986

Thomas Sowell once observed that the luckiest thing that ever happened to him is that his forbears were enslaved and sent to America. It was not at all lucky for them, of course (although they thus received the "economic freedom" of guaranteed food, clothing, shelter, and employment so beloved by the left!) But Sowell recognizes that as a free citizen in America, one has the greatest opportunities to thrive ever afforded to mankind.

President Calvin Coolidge noted the universality and permanence of the ideas of the Declaration:

"If all men are created equal, that is final. If they are endowed with inalienable rights, that is final. If governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed, that is final. No advance, no progress can be made beyond these propositions. If anyone wishes to deny their truth or their soundness, the only direction in which he can proceed historically is not forward, but backward toward the time when there was no equality, no rights of the individual, no rule of the people. Those who wish to proceed in that direction can not lay claim to progress. They are reactionary. Their ideas are not more modern, but more ancient, than those of the Revolutionary fathers."

~ Calvin Coolidge, July 5, 1926

So much for the claims of progressives and socialists/communists to be on the cutting edge of history, a new stage or era. Individual liberty is the one truly revolutionary principle.

I am always surprised when I hear Americans -- from the left or right or wherever -- say how bad things are in our country. The one thing they seem to agree on is that things are worse than ever, hopeless. Wow! For those of us who are Americans, we live in a country where there is no good reason at all to be poor. We live in times of unprecedented future promise. We are on the verge of becoming a truly interplanetary species, with nearly unlimited potential to flourish for anyone with a modicum of gumption and self-responsibility. Here is an example, something I wrote last month for the SpaceX IPO.

And so, celebrate America's 250th anniversary with all of us at Unforeseen Contingencies. Read the Declaration of Independence. Shoot off some fireworks, celebrate with "Pomp and Parade, with Shews, Games, Sports, Guns, Bells, Bonfires and Illuminations" as John Adams put it (although he thought it should have been the 2nd of July, when the Continental Congress "Resolved: That these United Colonies are, and of right ought to be, free and independent States, that they are absolved from all allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain is, and ought to be, totally dissolved.")

Adams also said "It ought to be commemorated, as the Day of Deliverance by solemn Acts of Devotion to God Almighty."

We should all always be grateful for liberty, defend it, and never ever take it for granted.

Photo: Unforeseen Contingencies Chief Blogger Charles N. Steele, at the UC Summer Headquarters and Fortified Compound, sporting his SpaceX hat.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 13:30 1 comments

Generally speaking, "we" here at Unforeseen Contingencies are fans of Donald Trump's two presidential terms.  There have been some grievous errors (Covid policy, tariffs), but on net, his work has been extremely beneficial and positive.  It is very possible that the attack on Iran is his greatest accomplishment of all.  It is a part of his recent foreign policy and promises much more advancement of freedom and civilization in the future.  Let me explain.

The Iranian regime, along with China and Russia, is anti-liberal... liberal in the classical sense of promoting individual liberty and the advance of civilization.  Iran, China, and Russia have been allied for some time.  A liberal world order has America as its center.  If America remains true to its principles and flourishes, much of the rest of the world will follow.  Hence America is an obstacle to the advance of Russian autocracy, Chinese communist hegemony, and an Islamic Ummah.  It is also an obstacle to a western technocratic elite.  Hence all agree, a traditional America must go.

Iran was developing nuclear weapons.  There is no doubt about this; it is well established that Iran had enriched uranium to the 60% level, enough for 11 nuclear bombs.  The Iranians themselves bragged about this.  The only use for such is a step to the 90% needed for a bomb; just 5% is the upper limit for nuclear power.  After the destruction of their Fordow nuclear weapons research site, the Iranians began building more fortified sites.  The killing of their top 49 leaders was well deserved and long overdue (49 so far, hopefully more to come).

The Iranian regime butchered Persians who dared to dissent -- over 30,000 recently.  They killed women who dared to uncover their hair.  They spread terror and war around the world, including violence in the United States, Argentina, Europe, all across North Africa and the Middle East... and they were building nuclear weapons and missiles that could reach the entire world, including the United States.  Extermination of this regime is long overdue.

The arrest of Maduro and destruction of the Iranian regime seem to be parts of an integrated strategy aimed at an even bigger threat.  China has now lost 20% of its oil supply, and the most heavily subsidized part at that.  The CCP's influence in South America and the Middle East has been reduced.  Chinese and Russian military equipment and doctrine have proven to be impotent against the U.S. military, at least when in the hands of clients.  The illiberal regimes of the world are on their heels.

I note that Cato Institute and other Professional Libertarian (TM) organizations are beside themselves over the Iran affair.  Yes, well, if you find yourself siding with Nicolas Maduro, the late Ayatollah Khamanei, Tucker Carlson, Candace Owen, Alexandra Ocasio Cortez, Rashida Tlaib, and Vladimir Putin, you are not a libertarian.  Libertarians are thankful for the destruction of tyranny.

Thank you, Mr. Trump.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 19:02 0 comments

There is nothing wrong with the free market.  But the term, "free market?"  That's a different matter.

I've been trying to convince advocates to refrain from using the term "the free market."  The term is a useful shorthand if one understands what it really means, but it lends itself to misrepresentation.  It does not say what is really free.

What "free market" really means is each individual is free to decide how to employ his or her labor, and free to make exchanges as he or she sees fit.  That is, each individual is free to propose exchanges, and to accept or reject proposed changes.  It is not "the market" that is free, it is individuals, who are free to order and direct their own lives.

Socialists and other enemies of freedom find it convenient to pretend to care about people while condemning the free market.  By explicitly stating what is entailed in the free market, we force the enemy onto the defensive.  It's much harder for them to individuals explain why it's desirable to get rid of free individuals than it is to get rid of an abstract free market.  "Free market" is a useful metaphor or shorthand, but we must emphasize that it really means free individuals.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 20:42 0 comments

We are one week into the new year and already the Predictions and Prognostications Desk at the Unforeseen Contingencies corporate headquarters has made two successful predictions and is well on the way to a third.  The Montana State University Bobcats won the FCS National Championship game over the Illinois State Red Birds, 35-34, in overtime.  It was a rough, messy game, with numerous mistakes, many flashes of brilliance, and MSU just barely eking out the victory.  Robert Service's line "deaths that just hang by a hair" comes to mind.  

If our reader (or readers! dare we hope?) care, the video highlights are here.  MSU's victory was made possible by two remarkable, nearly miraculous blocked kicks -- a Red Bird field goal at the end of the fourth quarter and an extra point kick in overtime.  Story here.

This might be the first (American) football post ever on Unforeseen Contingencies.  

Predictions 5 and 9 are in the bag!  Two hits!

But wait, there's more!

We are halfway to success Prediction 4.  The increasingly insurrection-y Democrat politicians of Minnesota, Governor Walz, Mayor Frey, and AG Ellis, are pushing the limits.  So too the new mayor of Seattle.  The moment one of them takes action against federal officers, they'll be arrested and charged.  Walz will be, anyway, as he is so deeply involved in all the Somali fraud scandals.

And already Putin's dark fleet is being hounded, and not just by the U.S., either.  This doesn't bode well for him.

This is shaping up to be a very good year!

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 18:42 0 comments

 Off and running!  The Unforeseen Contingencies prognostication desk has just scored its first hit.  The communist Maduro is out.

"We" approve.  The Chavez-Maduro regime was communist.  The Venezuelan regime made war, fifth-generation war, on the United States.  China, Russia, and Iran all invested heavily in the Venezuelan regime, aimed at America.  The Venezuelan criminal organization Tren de Aragua operated in the United States with the support of the Maduro government (and still operates, but hopefully not for long).

As a libertarian, our Chief Blogger and CEO Charles Steele highly approves.  He points out that this makes the world freer, and that is what counts.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 10:32 0 comments

We have been away.  But all of us at Unforeseen Contingencies wish all of our readers a happy 2026, whether such readers actually exist or not.  

There were many interesting developments in 2025, but we at UC largely refrained from commenting.  Suffice it to say we do not approve of antisemites, we enjoy seeing the bombing of dictators, terrorists, and their operations, we don't want immigration by predators and parasites, and we think communists should not have political power.  We revel in having sufficient energy to live a first-world lifestyle and in seeing government bureaucrats forced to seek productive work (we hope).

With all that in mind, here are our predictions for 2026.

1. Extra-terrestrial life discovered and announced.  One of my friends tells me he has heard rumors there will be an announcement about UFOs and aliens; I will be extremely skeptical if that does indeed happen, and don't think such an announcement should count as a hit without corroborating evidence.  Realistically this would require faster-than-light travel, and any civilization capable of FTL travel will have better things to do than play cat-and-mouse games on Earth.  Findings by SETI or discovery of life in our solar system will occur, though.

2. Tucker Carlson will announce his conversion to Islam and Candace Owen will wear a hijab, at least once.  (If she puts on a burka instead, that counts).

3. Republicans will retain both houses of Congress.  Now I am getting on shaky ground, obviously.

4. The insurrection ("resistance") will face the law.  Federal criminal charges will be brought against at least one of the following: Tim Walz, Gavin Newsom, Ilhan Omar Elmi, Nancy Pelosi, Keith Ellison, J.B. Pritzker, and Mayor Brandon Johnson of Chicago.  If it is the Democrat mayor of a different major hellhole city, it also will count as a hit.  

5. At least one of the world's major dictatorships will collapse.  These include Venezuela, Iran, China, Russia, and North Korea, perhaps others.  Most likely, the communist regime in Venezuela will collapse.  Maduro will leave office, and possibly existence.  Iran is also a likely candidate.  Russia and China much less so, but the regimes are dependent on strong authoritarian leaders and do not have the institutional depth and thus stability of liberal regimes.

6. Putin will not agree to an end to Russia's war on Ukraine.  Ukraine will not fall, and until Putin dies, the war will continue.

7. Putin dies.  Natural causes.*

8. The U.S. economy does not suffer recession.  (This one is easy; so long as President Trump keeps cutting regulation and holding the line on taxes, entrepreneurship will do the rest.)

9. The Montana State University Bobcats win the FCS National Championship in football (that's American football).

10. Chief Blogger and Ultrarunner Steele completes the Beaverhead 55K (his 5th) and the Le Grizz 50 Mile (his 25th).  

I don't have a Wild Card this year.  It doesn't seem necessary, since most of these predictions are pretty wild.  But you may rest assured, they will come to pass.

Happy 2026!

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* As opposed to supernatural.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 17:52 2 comments

July 4, 1776 is the day Americans said to Britain, "We don't need or want your government.  We can be our own authority, and follow fundamental truths and principles, instead of your arbitrary, unprincipled diktats.  Now shove off!"  Americans then had to kill a bunch of Brits to make it stick.

In that spirit of joyous defiance, and in lieu of our usual essays on the importance of the Declaration of Independence and this holiday, "we" at Unforeseen Contingencies will attempt to violate arbitrary and noxious edicts from European despots.  This should not be too difficult; the E.U. and the U.K. have all sorts of stupid rules about what things one must not say, and apparently they think these should apply to the worldwide web globally.  So let's see what we can do.  Here are some statements we think worth considering that (we hope) violate noxious edicts.

1. The European Union is a dictatorial and illegitimate regime and should be disbanded immediately, taking the Euro with it.  

2. The Starmer government in the U.K. is a band of criminals; he and his ministers should be arrested and prosecuted for protecting Muslim rioters and rapists, and for persecuting people who protest transgenderism, abortion, and pretty much anything else that people have been arrested for protesting in the U.K.

3.The World Health Organization is a criminal enterprise.  It should be abolished and Director-General Tedros should face a Nuremburg-style tribunal for his role in advancing the Covid lockdowns and related crimes.  These are capital offenses and if convicted he should face capital punishment.

I think but am not certain we are breaking European "laws" here, but all we've done is express political opinion (#1) and argue that there have been criminal acts that should be prosecuted (#2 and #3), so just in case, let's continue.

4. Islamism should be illegal.  Islamic government and sharia law are tyrannical and incompatible with advanced civilization.

5. It might not be true of all Islam, but current mainstream Sunni and Shia Islam are pernicious, noisome and ridiculous beliefs.

6. Climate change, as promoted by the IPCC, is a hoax.

There's a nice half dozen statements; surely something among them would offend U.K. police  and get me a visit, were I to post them in that formerly great land.  And I imagine I've advertently violated one E.U. regulation or other.  I certainly hope so, and hope someone in the U.K. and E.U. stumble across them today.

The United States of America were founded on the principle "that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights," and that governments exist only to protect these.  If governments fail in that and become destructive of these rights, then they should be abolished and replaced.  This is a fundamental principle, applicable to all times, people, and places, and the American Revolution first instantiated it.  Every human being who loves liberty and abhors tyranny should celebrate this 249th anniversary today.

Here is an excellent short piece by the eminent historian Wilfred McClay on the meaning and origins of the ideas in the Declaration of Independence.

Update 6 July 2025: Here's another short piece from Lloyd Billingsley on American independence from the U.N. and its ilk.  Very good!

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 15:26 0 comments