Unforeseen Contingencies

Or your money back.

Unforeseen Contingencies scored 60% on "our" predictions for 2025 (so far, there's still a few hours left, and Prediction #10 is still looking good to us).

The new year offers us the opportunity to improve on this score.  Of course, things are quite chaotic, making this a difficult task.  But the entire staff of our highly professional, scientifically trained forecasting desk assures me they have are up to the challenge.  So without further ado, let's begin.

1. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson will remain Speaker for the immediate future, and Donald Trump will be confirmed as winner of the 2024 presidential election.  Weirdly, if we have this one wrong, there probably will not be a Speaker by January 20, in which case Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa will become Acting President. 

President Trump and his DOGE will go to war against the federal administrative bureaucracy.  Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will lead the charge, but lesser known figures such as James Sherk will play crucial roles.  So our prediction:

2. In 2025 the federal workforce will shrink by 10%. I don't think that's nearly enough, but Rome wasn't built in a day, nor dismantled in a year.  Supposedly the current federal "work" force is 3 million.  Demands that bureaucrats actually begin showing up at the office will start the process of shrinking 

 3. China will not invade Taiwan.  This is a tricky one.  China's position weakens over time.  Their economy is weak, their demographic problem grows, and neither is going to be reversed under Xi.  And while China gets progressively weaker, their best window of opportunity is closing.  The leftist Democrat administration is about to leave office.  The progressive/left are utterly incapable of offering serious opposition because of their addled understanding of how the world works and their moral incompetence. If China is to invade Taiwan, sooner is better for them than later, but Xi's internal problems and the difficulty of dealing with an unsympathetic American president will dissuade him from war in 2025.

4. Donald Trump will not impose tariffs on the E.U.  This means that the E.U. will be increasing its imports of American natural gas.  This is bad news for Putin.

5. Ukraine and Russia will still be at war at the end of 2025.  The Russian economy is in decline.  Russia is consuming its reserves.  The Ukrainians won't capitulate.  Putin needs to extricate himself while appearing a winner, but there's no easy way to do this.  

6. Substantial domestic chaos in the United States as the Trump administration cracks down on illegal immigrants, federal bureaucrats, and those who flout the law, especially state  & local officials and universities.  I expect riots matching the George Floyd riots of 2020, as well as violations of federal law by state and local officials.  How to score a hit?  Expect riots that shut down at least three major cities at once, and the high profile arrest by federal agents of at least one mayor or state official for harboring illegals.

7. Israel will undertake a massive attack on Iran, most likely on the Iranian nuclear facilities.  For a hit, the attack must be the bigger than any previous one.

8. The American economy will show a 3% growth rate by the end of 2025 as Trump curtails regulation.  This one is risky because of the federal government's shaky fiscal position and the enormous bank reserves that the Fed is paying interest on.  However, Trump 45 and now Milei have shown that with cuts in regulation, entrepreneurs are turned loose to create wealth.

9. There will be a serious attempt on President Trump's life.  It will fail.  It will look very much like an attempt organized by elements from within the federal government, but there will be no proof.  Prediction 9 is a corollary of Prediction 2.  I expect massive opposition from federal officials as they face the prospect of having their unchecked power stripped away.

10.  The existence of extraterrestrial life will be confirmed.  I'm surprised this hasn't already happened.

11. Wild card extra credit prediction: CEO and Chief Blogger Charles N. Steele will complete the Woodstock 100 Mile Race in September.  Bet on it!

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 14:29 0 comments